November 2017 General Election

Per the Tangent style guide candidates are listed alphabetically by last name.
Winners are denoted with (w).

Virginia Governor
Ed Gillespie (R):45.0%
Cliff Hyra (L):1.1%
Ralph Northam (D):53.9% (w)
Other:0.1%
Virginia Lt. Governor
Justin Fairfax (D):52.7% (w)
Jill Vogel (R):47.2%
Other:0.1%
Virginia Atty. General
John Adams (R):46.6%
Mark Herring (D):53.3% (w)
Other:0.1%
Virginia House, 87th
John Bell (D):61.7% (w)
Subba Kolla (R):38.0%
Other:0.2%
Loudoun Safety Bonds
Yes:75.2% (w)
No:24.8%
Loudoun School Bonds
Yes:73.6% (w)
No:26.4%

Election Updates

  • November 7, 2017, 6:30 p.m.: Off on a Tangent election coverage is getting started. Stay tuned! The polls close at 7 p.m. Anybody in line at that time will still be permitted to vote. It usually takes about an hour for precincts to begin reporting results.
  • 6:47 p.m.: As always, Off on a Tangent will be providing live returns from the Virginia Department of Elections in every election we are following. We will declare winners using our own proprietary method, which relies on official returns, exit polling (when available), and media calls.
  • 7:00 p.m.: The polls in Virginia are now officially closed (though anybody who was in line before 7 p.m. will still be able to vote). Results usually begin to trickle-in within an hour.
  • 7:15 p.m.: Results are just now starting to trickle in and will be appearing in our result chart within the next few minutes.
  • 7:21 p.m.: There is a bug in our ‘precincts reporting,’ which causes them to display as zero even though some precincts are in. I’m investigating. The actual results are accurate based on data from the Virginia Department of Elections.
  • 7:34 p.m.: The ‘precincts reporting’ issue is now corrected, and the values will update automatically with the next refresh.
  • 7:51 p.m.: Off on a Tangent call: The Loudoun County public safety bond referendum has passed.
  • 7:54 p.m.: Off on a Tangent call: The Loudoun County school bond referendum has passed.
  • 8:00 p.m.: Media outlets are calling the New Jersey gubernatorial race for Phil Murphy (D).
  • 8:06 p.m.: Off on a Tangent call: John Bell (D) has been reelected to represent the 87th District in the Virginia House of Delegates.
  • 8:20 p.m.: Numerous media outlets have called the Virginia gubernatorial race for Ralph Northam (D). Off on a Tangent is not yet prepared to make a call in this race.
  • 8:25 p.m.: Off on a Tangent call: Ralph Northam (D) has been elected Governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia.
  • 8:28 p.m.: Due to human-error, Ed Gillespie (R) was briefly labeled as the winner in my results chart. This has been corrected. Thanks to reader Allen for bringing this to my attention.
  • 8:56 p.m.: The races for Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General remain too close to call. It seems increasingly likely that the Democratic Party candidates will win in both races, but we are not yet confident enough to make a formal call.
  • 9:06 p.m.: Off on a Tangent call: Mark Herring (D) has been reelected Attorney General of the Commonwealth of Virginia.
  • 9:07 p.m.: Off on a Tangent call: Justin Fairfax (D) has been elected Lieutenant Governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia.
  • 9:09 p.m.: Ed Gillespie (R), speaking to his supporters, has conceded defeat in the race to serve as Governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia.
  • 9:53 p.m.: Attorney General Mark Herring (D), who has been reelected, is now making a victory speech to his supporters. He stated that his opponent, John Adams (R), has called him to concede defeat.
  • 10:00 p.m.: Justin Fairfax (D), the lieutenant governor-elect, is now making a victory speech to his supporters.
  • 10:25 p.m.: Ralph Northam (D), the governor-elect, began a victory speech to his supporters. He stated that his opponent, Ed Gillespie (R), had called him to concede defeat. Immediately thereafter, he was rushed off the stage by security officials as hecklers or protesters began a chant. After about a minute, as the hecklers were being removed, he returned to the lectern and continued his speech.
  • November 08, 2017, 12:02 a.m.: Two precincts are still outstanding in the statewide races, so the results are not completely final yet. We will be signing-off for the night and ending our live coverage, but we’ll continue to update the results periodically until the final, certified results are in. Thank you for joining us!
  • 10:30 a.m.: In addition to winning the three statewide offices, the Democratic Party also made significant gains in the House of Delegates. Although some races are still too close to call, we know that the Democrats have gained at least fourteen seats. The Republican Party will likely still hold a majority, but it will be significantly diminished.
  • 4:31 p.m.: All precincts have reported, including all of those for the 87th District in the House of Delegates, although it will continue to show in my table as 96.6% reported. This is due to an unusual oddity with the design of our precincts here in Loudoun County, explained below.
    • Loudoun’s voting precinct 114 (Dulles South) is partially in the 87th District and partially in the 67th District. The part of the precinct that is in the 87th, however, is the Dulles Airport property and adjacent industrial and commercial properties . . . there are no residential properties there (and thus, no voters). There are voters who live in precinct 114, but they are all in the 67th District.
    • This means that every 87th District race will include a reported count of zero votes from precinct 114. And the Department of Elections dump that I’m using does not distinguish between an unreported precinct and a reported zero-vote precinct. This means my parser will keep counting 114 as an unreported precinct for the 87th District race.
    • Unrelated technical improvements that I already have planned for next year’s election coverage will eliminate this issue . . . but for this year, it is what it is.
  • 10:13 p.m.: Results are now very close to final, but each local electoral board must still review and record any valid provisional ballots. Then, after all local boards have completed their work, the Virginia State Board of Elections will review and certify the final statewide tallies. I will continue to periodically update the results until the final, certified results are available.
  • November 10, 2017, 4:02 p.m.: An update on the breakdown of the Virginia House of Delegates: Before this election, the breakdown was 66-34 with Republicans in the majority. Currently, it looks like the new breakdown will likely be 51-49 with Republicans still in the majority, but having lost a whopping fifteen seats. There are still two races that are close enough to warrant recounts, so this may still shift slightly.
  • November 14, 2017, 1:07 a.m.: The canvassing and review process continues. We expect no significant changes, but will continue to update the results periodically until they are certified by the Virginia State Board of Elections.
  • November 18, 2017, 2:56 p.m.: The Virginia State Board of Elections will meet to certify the election results on Monday, November 20. At that time, this post will be marked as final . . . however, due to expected recounts in three House of Delegates districts, there may be some very minor adjustments afterwards. It is expected that the results will be certified with a House breakdown of 51-49 with Republicans in the majority. It is possible that the recount process will still change this breakdown.
  • November 20, 2017, 9:49 p.m.: We are now updated to the final, certified election results. This concludes our coverage. Thanks for tuning-in!

November 2016 General Election

Per the Tangent style guide candidates are listed alphabetically by last name.
Winners are denoted with (w).

President of the United States

Hillary Clinton (D)
Electors: 232

California (55)
Colorado (9)
Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
D.C. (3)
Hawaii (4)
Illinois (20)
Maine (3) (split)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (11)
Minnesota (10)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
New Jersey (14)
New Mexico (5)
New York (29)
Oregon (7)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)
Virginia (13)
Washington (12)

Donald Trump (R)
Electors: 306 (w)

Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arizona (11)
Arkansas (6)
Florida (29)
Georgia (16)
Idaho (4)
Indiana (11)
Iowa (6)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (8)
Maine (1) (split)
Michigan (16)
Mississippi (6)
Missouri (10)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (5)
North Carolina (15)
North Dakota (3)
Ohio (18)
Oklahoma (7)
Pennsylvania (20)
South Carolina (9)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Texas (38)
Utah (6)
West Virginia (5)
Wisconsin (10)
Wyoming (3)

U.S. President (Virginia)
Hillary Clinton (D):49.7% (w)
Gary Johnson (L):3.0%
Evan McMullin (I):1.4%
Jill Stein (G):0.7%
Donald Trump (R):44.4%
Other:0.8%
U.S. House, VA-10th
LuAnn Bennett (D):46.9%
Barbara Comstock (R):52.7% (w)
Other:0.4%
Virginia Work Amendment
Yes:46.4%
No:53.6% (w)
Virginia Tax Amendment
Yes:79.7% (w)
No:20.3%
Loudoun Parks Bonds
Yes:58.6% (w)
No:41.4%
Loudoun Safety Bonds
Yes:78.6% (w)
No:21.4%
Loudoun Transp. Bonds
Yes:72.9% (w)
No:27.1%
Loudoun School Bonds
Yes:71.1% (w)
No:28.9%

Election Updates

  • November 8, 2016, 6:30 p.m.: Off on a Tangent election coverage is getting started. Stay tuned! The first polls will begin to close at about 7 p.m.
  • 6:39 p.m.: Polls close at 7 p.m. in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia. In most states, anybody in line to vote when the polls close will be allowed to vote.
  • 6:59 p.m.: Off on a Tangent makes election calls using a proprietary system that relies on a combination of media reports, exit polling data (where available), and official returns. An interesting night is about to begin.
  • 7:01 p.m.: The first few state calls have been made. No big surprises so far.
  • 7:20 p.m.: Starting to get some Virginia results in, but there is some kind of reporting problem with the referendums (showing precincts reported but with no results). I’m looking into it.
  • 7:22 p.m.: The polls are scheduled to close at 8:30 p.m. in North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia.
  • 7:44 p.m.: I have fixed a bug in my processing of Virginia results, which was causing the referendums to show with zero votes. It will take about ten minutes for the results to update accordingly, but they should be good-to-go from there.
  • 7:53 p.m.: Sixteen states are scheduled to close their polls at 8 p.m.: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Tennessee. The District of Columbia’s polls are also scheduled to close at 8.
  • 7:55 p.m.: Off on a Tangent projection: The Virginia property tax amendment has passed.
  • 8:04 p.m.: A bunch of calls among the 8 p.m. states, but still no big surprises. These were all states considered ‘safe’ for their respective winners.
  • 8:26 p.m.: Media outlets including CNN and the Associated Press are projecting that Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) has won reelection.
  • 8:29 p.m.: Arkansas is the only state with polls scheduled to close at 8:30 p.m.
  • 8:33 p.m.: Media outlets are projecting that the Republican Party will maintain a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
  • 8:40 p.m.: Off on a Tangent projection: The Loudoun County public safety bond referendum has passed.
  • 8:48 p.m.: For some reason, Loudoun County has not reported any data to the Virginia Department of Elections, which is why all of the county bond referendums are showing with zero votes. I am able to monitor the numbers through other channels and this reporting delay will not affect my ability to make calls.
  • 8:55 p.m.: Fourteen states are scheduled to close their polls at 9 p.m.: Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.
  • 9:07 p.m.: Off on a Tangent projection: The Loudoun County transportation bond referendum and the Loudoun County school bond referendum have both passed.
  • 9:27 p.m.: No states are scheduled to close their polls at 9:30 p.m., so the next batch will close at 10. There are fourteen states whose polls are already closed, but are too close to call at this time. This includes most of the key ‘swing states’ in the eastern half of the country.
  • 9:44 p.m.: Loudoun County is (finally!) submitting results for the local bond referendums, so the numbers on those are starting to fill out now and the results table will look less stupid.
  • 9:47 p.m.: Off on a Tangent projection: Representative Barbara Comstock (R-VA 10th) has been reelected.
  • 9:53 p.m.: Four states are scheduled to close their polls at 10 p.m.: Iowa, Montana, Nevada, and Utah. There are still thirteen states whose polls have already closed, but their results remain too close to call.
  • 10:01 p.m.: Off on a Tangent projection: Virginia’s thirteen presidential electoral votes will go very narrowly to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D).
  • 10:04 p.m.: Off on a Tangent projection: The Virginia worker rights amendment has failed.
  • 10:07 p.m.: Off on a Tangent projection: The Loudoun County parks and recreation bond referendum has passed.
  • 10:49 p.m.: Trump is significantly outperforming the expectations of the polls, models, and pundits. It remains to be seen whether it will be enough to turn the outcome in his favor, but it is shaping up to be a much closer race than expected.
  • 10:56 p.m.: Five states are scheduled to close their polls at 11 p.m.: California, Hawaii, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington.
  • 10:59 p.m.: Slowly-but-surely, the key swing states are getting called for one candidate or another. At this time, Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio have gone for Trump, while Colorado and Virginia gone for Clinton.
  • 11:05 p.m.: As of 11 p.m., the polls are scheduled to have been closed in every state except Alaska. Alaska’s polls are scheduled to close at 1 a.m.
  • 11:24 p.m.: In 2012, Off on a Tangent projected that President Barack Obama (D) would win reelection at 11:17 p.m. This year, it’s past that time and the presidential race remains too close to call (even as all of the other races Off on a Tangent is covering have been called).
  • 11:41 p.m.: Donald Trump (R) is now only sixteen electoral votes short of the presidency, having made surprising wins in Iowa and Wisconsin.
  • November 09, 2016, 12:26 a.m.: The current vote spread in New Hampshire is . . . eighteen votes.
  • 12:57 a.m.: One state is scheduled to close its polls at 1 a.m.: Alaska. It will be the last state to close its polls.
  • 1:27 a.m.: Media reports indicate that the Republican Party will maintain a majority in the U.S. Senate.
  • 1:51 a.m.: Off on a Tangent projection: Donald Trump (R) has obtained an electoral college majority of at least 277, and has been elected President of the United States. He is the first person to rise to the presidency without having previously held elective office since the election of Dwight Eisenhower (R) in 1952.
  • 2:36 a.m.: The Associated Press has now called the election for Donald Trump (R).
  • 2:41 a.m.: Media reports that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) has called Donald Trump (R) to concede the presidential election.
  • 3:09 a.m.: Donald Trump (R) gave an acceptance speech to supporters in New York, New York, graciously congratulating former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) on a hard-fought campaign, and pledging to work to unite America.
  • 3:13 a.m.: I will be suspending Off on a Tangent live coverage until later in the morning. All of the races I am following have been called, but the final numbers are still coming in. There are a few Virginia precincts still outstanding, and I have not yet made calls in Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire. I will continue to update these (as time permits) in the coming days.
  • 9:58 a.m.: I’m resuming live coverage now (as time permits). No major changes from last night. For the moment, the electoral count remains where it was.
  • 10:05 a.m.: Earlier this morning, President Barack Obama (D) called President-Elect Donald Trump (R) to congratulate him on his victory and invite him to the White House to discuss the transition process on Thursday. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) will speak at 10:30 a.m., presumably to publicly concede the election.
  • 10:09 a.m.: Seven Virginia precincts are still outstanding. The laggards are one precinct each in Prince William County and the cities of Newport News, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Richmond, Roanoke, and Virginia Beach.
  • 10:22 a.m.: According to media exit polls, Trump did better with both black and Latino Americans than former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) did in 2012. Of course he still got only relatively small minorities of both of those racial/ethnic groups, but this information confounds analysts who assumed Trump’s rhetoric would lead to losses in those groups.
  • 11:05 a.m.: Trump has also made impressive gains with union members. Looking just at Ohio, Romney won only 37% of union voters in 2012 . . . Trump won more than 50%. The national results likely won’t be as large of a jump, but he made significant gains for sure.
  • 11:58 a.m.: Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) spoke this morning in New York, New York, publicly conceding the election to President-Elect Donald Trump (R). She thanked her supporters for their efforts and encouraged them to continue fighting for their values through the political process.
  • 12:21 p.m.: Preliminary popular vote results show that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) is ahead with about 47.8%. President-Elect Donald Trump (R) is slightly behind with 47.6%. If this holds, it would be the first time since the divisive 2000 election that the winner of the popular vote did not win in the Electoral College.
  • 12:23 p.m.: Regarding third-party candidates, the preliminary popular vote results have former Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM) on the Libertarian ticket at 3.2%, Doctor Jill Stein (G) at 0.9%, and Evan McMullin (I) at 0.3%.
  • 12:32 p.m.: Former Governor Gary Johnson’s (R-NM) performance will set records for the Libertarian Party, and yet still badly under-performed versus his poll numbers. Off on a Tangent had categorized Johnson as a “major candidate” because I believed it was likely that he would earn five percent of the popular vote.
  • 1:15 p.m.: President-Elect Donald Trump (R) has won Michigan’s sixteen electoral votes, the first Republican to win the state since President George H.W. Bush (R) in 1988.
  • 3:42 p.m.: The only state still un-called by Off on a Tangent is New Hampshire, where former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) holds a narrow but steady lead over President-Elect Donald Trump (R). Assuming that Clinton takes New Hampshire, which seems likely, the final electoral tally will be 306-232.
  • 4:01 p.m.: We still have five Virginia precincts outstanding. The laggards are one precinct each in Prince William County and the cities of Newport News, Norfolk, Richmond, and Virginia Beach.
  • 10:10 p.m.: Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) will hold her narrow lead in New Hampshire, winning that state’s four electoral votes and completing the electoral map. Off on a Tangent can now project that the final result will be 306 electors for President-Elect Donald Trump (R) and 232 for Clinton.
  • 10:16 p.m.: Well over twenty-four hours after the polls closed, we are still waiting for results from four Virginia precincts. The remaining laggards are one precinct each from Prince William County and the cities of Norfolk, Richmond, and Virginia Beach. I’m suspending coverage for the evening, but will pick up again tomorrow and hopefully I’ll be able to close this thing out soon.
  • November 10, 2016, 12:50 p.m.: The same four Virginia precincts are still outstanding. In the mean time, here are the latest numbers from the presidential popular vote. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) remains in the lead with 47.8% of the vote, followed closely by President-Elect Donald Trump (R) with 47.6%. Among the third-parties, former Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM) on the Libertarian ticket is at about 3.3%, Doctor Jill Stein (G) is at 1.0%, and Evan McMullin (I) is at about 0.3%.
  • 2:36 p.m.: We’re down to only two Virginia precincts outstanding: one each in the cities of Norfolk and Richmond.
  • November 11, 2016, 12:41 p.m.: Still waiting for those last two precincts. Any day now, Norfolk and Richmond!
  • November 14, 2016, 12:28 p.m.: Off on a Tangent will be returning to ‘regular programming’ mode. This post will continue to be updated periodically until all of the numbers are finalized.
  • November 23, 2016, 12:09 p.m.: The results are essentially final at this point, although there are some oddities in the results for the two Virginia constitutional amendment referendums. Seven precincts across the state are showing zero votes (for ‘yes’, ‘no’, or both), which seems likely to be an error. I have notified the Virginia Department of Elections and will update with any response I receive.
  • January 11, 2017, 10:01 p.m.: I have updated the numbers with the final, certified results and am marking them as final. Thanks for tuning in!

November 2015 General Election

Per the Tangent style guide candidates are listed alphabetically by last name.
Winners are denoted with (w).

Virginia Senate, 13th
Dick Black (R):52.3% (w)
Jill McCabe (D):47.5%
Other:0.2%
Virginia House, 87th
John Bell (D):49.9% (w)
Chuong Nguyen (R):47.9%
Brian Suojanen:2.1%
Other:0.1%
Loudoun Board (Chairman)
Thomas Bellanca (I):3.0%
Charlie King (R):28.9%
Phyllis Randall (D):37.6% (w)
Scott York (I):30.3%
Other:0.2%
Loudoun Board (Dulles)
Anjan Chimaladinne (D):28.4%
Matthew Letourneau (R):71.5% (w)
Other:0.1%
Loudoun Treasurer
Evan Macbeth (D):31.0%
H. Roger Zurn Jr. (R):68.8% (w)
Other:0.2%
Loudoun Sheriff
Brian Allman (D):13.1%
Michael Chapman (R):60.8% (w)
Steve Simpson (I):25.7%
Other:0.4%
Loudoun Com. Attorney
Robert Ohneiser (D):40.5%
James Plowman (R):59.3% (w)
Other:0.2%
Loudoun Court Clerk
Gary Clemens (R):58.9% (w)
Eileen Tagg-Murdock (D):40.9%
Other:0.2%
Loudoun Comm. of Revenue
Robert Wertz Jr. (R):98.6% (w)
Other:1.4%
Loudoun Sch. Board (At-Large)
Beth Huck:55.0% (w)
Stephan Knobloch:44.6%
Other:0.4%
Loudoun Sch. Board (Dulles)
Jeff Morse:69.3% (w)
Kenya Savage:30.5%
Other:0.2%
Loudoun S&W Conservation
John Flannery II:33.8% (w)
Marina Schumacher:36.4% (w)
L. Ali Shahriari:9.6%
James Wylie:19.6% (w)
Other:0.5%
Loudoun Safety Bonds
Yes:79.8% (w)
No:20.2%
Loudoun School Bonds
Yes:65.2% (w)
No:34.8%

Election Updates

  • November 3, 2015, 6:30 p.m. Off on a Tangent’s live election coverage is getting started. Stay tuned for results from local races, and general reports. The polls will begin closing in Virginia at 7:00 p.m., so if you are eligible to vote and have not done so, now is the time!
  • 6:45 p.m. – Results usually start to trickle in within an hour of the polls closing. Off on a Tangent coverage will continue until all of our followed races are called, or 1:00 a.m., whichever comes first.
  • 7:00 p.m. - Polls in Virginia are officially closed, although anybody who was in line at 7:00 will be permitted to vote.
  • 7:30 p.m. – Some early results are now being posted by the Virginia Department of Elections, although none from any of my local races yet. I expect our local races will begin getting their first results soon.
  • 7:38 p.m. – The first Loudoun County results are beginning to come in.
  • 7:41 p.m. - I am aware of a bug in my results causing ‘Other’ to be very, very, very absurdly over-reported (e.g., 1,591.4%). I am working on a fix. The results for actual candidates are being calculated correctly.
  • 7:49 p.m. – The miscalculation of ‘Other’ votes for the various races should now be corrected. You can refresh the page, or just wait for the next auto-update and it should fix itself.
  • 8:45 p.m. Off on a Tangent calls: Loudoun Supervisor Matt Letourneau (R-Dulles) has been reelected. Loudoun County School Board member Jeff Morse (Dulles) has been reelected.
  • 8:49 p.m. – Off on a Tangent call: Loudoun County Commissioner of Revenue Bob Wertz (R) has been reelected.
  • 9:02 p.m. – Off on a Tangent calls: Loudoun County Treasurer Roger Zurn (R), Sheriff Mike Chapman (R), Commonwealth’s Attorney Jim Plowman (R), and Circuit Court Clerk Gary Clemens (R) have all been reelected.
  • 9:07 p.m. – Off on a Tangent calls: The Loudoun County public safety bond referendum has passed. The Loudoun County school bond referendum has passed.
  • 9:10 p.m. – Estimated turnout in Loudoun County is thirty percent of registered voters, which is roughly consistent with past turnout in ‘off-year’ local races.
  • 9:13 p.m. – Off on a Tangent call: John FlanneryMarina Schumacher, and James Wylie have been elected to the Loudoun Soil and Water Conservation District Board of Directors.
  • 9:32 p.m. – Media reports indicate that the Republican Party will maintain majorities in both the Virginia House of Delegates and the Virginia Senate.
  • 9:43 p.m. – Off on a Tangent call: Virginia Senator Dick Black (R-VA 13th) has been reelected.
  • 9:46 p.m. – Off on a Tangent calls: Phyllis Randall (D) has been elected Chairman of the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors, unseating incumbent Chairman Scott York (R), who was running for reelection as an independent. Beth Huck has been elected to the at-large seat on the Loudoun County School Board.
  • 9:51 p.m. – Of the races I am officially following, only the 87th District of the Virginia House of Delegates remains outstanding. The seat is currently held by Delegate David Ramadan (R-VA 87th), who is not seeking reelection. John Bell (D) has a lead over Chuong Nguyen (R), which will likely hold, but I am not quite ready to make an official call.
  • 10:26 p.m. - The 87th District race has narrowed; Bell and Nguyen are now within three hundred votes (of the roughly fifteen-thousand counted so far). Bell is still in the lead but it remains too close to call.
  • 10:32 p.m. – The Loudoun County Board of Supervisors, which was previously unanimously Republican, will likely end up with a 6-3 Republican majority. The Democratic Party appears to have taken the chairman (at-large), Leesburg District, and Sterling District seats.
  • 10:36 p.m. – Controversial Loudoun Supervisor Eugene Delgaudio (R-Sterling), who has been censured by the board for improper use of county resources, has been unseated by Koran Saines (D).
  • 10:41 p.m. – Chairman-Elect Phyllis Randall (D) and Supervisor-Elect Koran Saines (D-Sterling) will be the first African-Americans to serve on the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors.
  • 10:47 p.m. – Off on a Tangent call: John Bell (D) has narrowly won election to represent the 87th District in the Virginia House of Delegates.
  • 11:06 p.m. – No Virginia Senate seats will be changing party hands. The Republican Party will maintain a 21-19 majority.
  • 11:14 p.m. – All of the races I am following in my official Off on a Tangent coverage have been called, so I will be ending my live coverage at this time. A few precincts still have outstanding results, and coverage will continue as time permits in the days to come until all results are finalized. Thank you for tuning in!
  • November 04, 2015, 8:47 a.m. – This morning, all precincts are reported for all of my followed races . . . except for the two Loudoun County bond referendums. Loudoun County has not yet reported the Eagle Ridge precinct referendum results to the Virginia Department of Elections. Those results are available directly from Loudoun County, so I could calculate a final result and close it out, but the fact that the county has not yet reported them to the state indicates that the numbers may need additional verification.
  • November 05, 2015, 10:13 a.m. – The Eagle Ridge precinct in Loudoun County is still not reported to the Virginia Department of Elections for the two bond referendums, so they are still showing only 99% reported. I’m not sure what’s going on; I am going to contact the relevant authorities and see if I can get a comment.
  • 11:46 a.m. – The missing results issue from Eagle Ridge precinct was due to an error on the Virginia Department of Elections system, which has now been resolved. Thank you to Rose Mansfield, the Board Liaison and Agency Business Coordinator, for looking into it so quickly!
  • 12:16 p.m. – With all results finalized, my live coverage is now at an end. Thank you again for tuning in; I hope to see you next November!

November 2014 General Election

Per the Tangent style guide candidates are listed alphabetically by last name.
Winners are denoted with (w).

U.S. Senate, Virginia
Ed Gillespie (R):48.3%
Robert Sarvis (L):2.4%
Mark Warner (D):49.1% (w)
Other:0.0%
U.S. House, VA-10th
Diane Blais (IG):0.4%
Barbara Comstock (R):56.5% (w)
Brad Eickholt (I):1.1%
John Foust (D):40.4%
Bill Redpath (L):1.5%
Other:0.1%
Virginia Tax Amendment
Yes:87.3% (w)
No:12.7%
Loudoun Safety Bonds
Yes:68.2% (w)
No:31.8%
Loudoun Park Bonds
Yes:59.2% (w)
No:40.8%
Loudoun School Bonds
Yes:67.6% (w)
No:32.4%

Election Updates

  • November 04, 2014, 6:30 p.m.: The Off on a Tangent election night live blog is . . . live! Stand by for breaking news and updates as the results begin to come in after 7:00 p.m. Eastern time.
  • 6:37 p.m.: I have built a lot of new tech for our coverage tonight, and it is untested in ‘real world’ scenarios. I am hopeful that everything will work as designed, but I’ll report any issues here in the blog.
  • 6:55 p.m.: The Virginia polls will close in about five minutes, but anybody already in line will be allowed to vote. Results should start coming in within an hour.
  • 7:01 p.m.: CNN is projecting that Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has won reelection.
  • 7:09 p.m.: My live blog is experiencing an intermittent issue where it will stop updating automatically in the background. Refreshing the page fixes the issue, but it may recur later in your session. I am working on identifying and fixing the issue.
  • 7:28 p.m.: I have made some changes in my caching system that I hope will resolve the problem. I’m still keeping an eye on it though.
  • 7:48 p.m.: Results are coming in. Had some big bugs initially, so if you’re seeing weird results please refresh the page. I’m also still seeing the live blog issues, but I’m working on a new fix.
  • 8:59 p.m.: Off on a Tangent can project that Barbara Comstock (R) has been elected to Virginia’s 10th District seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.
  • 9:08 p.m.: Off on a Tangent can project that the Virginia Tax Amendment has passed.
  • 9:16 p.m.: I am troubleshooting an issue that is over-counting the total number of precincts for the Virginia Tax Amendment. Not a big issue, but an annoying one. . . .
  • 10:08 p.m.: The precinct count issue is now resolved. It was caused by malformed data being provided by the Virginia Department of Elections. I am now compensating for their weirdness.
  • 10:09 p.m.: Off on a Tangent can project that all three Loudoun County bond referendums have passed.
  • 10:12 p.m.: With over ninety-six percent of precincts reporting, the race for U.S. Senator from Virginia is too close to call. Senator Mark Warner (D-VA) had been expected to win the race handily, but is currently within 0.2 percentage points of Republican challenger Ed Gillespie.
  • 10:47 p.m.: The pollsters are going to have some ‘splaining to do. The RCP averages had Warner 10 points ahead, and he’s running practically dead-even with Gillespie. The 10th District race was also polling dead-even, and was considered a toss-up or maybe a slight ‘leans republican,’ but Comstock won by more than 10 points (and possibly as much as 15).
  • 11:08 p.m.: The Virginia Department of Elections is having trouble with their results site again (similar to what happened last year). This won’t affect my coverage, since I am using a separate feed designed for media outlets, but it sure reflects badly on the state, especially after last year’s debacles.
  • 11:11 p.m.: The Republican Party will take at least fifty seats in the U.S. Senate. If Republicans win only one more seat, they will hold a Senate majority.
  • 11:33 p.m.: The Republican Party will become the majority party in the U.S. Senate with at least fifty-one seats. They will also hold a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
  • 11:43 p.m.: More weirdness with the precinct counts caused by duplicated entries in the Virginia Department of Elections feeds, resulting in goofiness like more precincts reported than there are precincts. I’ve implemented a new fix to filter out duplicated entries.
  • November 05, 2014, 12:27 a.m.: Larry Hogan (R) has been elected Governor of Maryland, defeating Anthony Brown (D).
  • 1:20 a.m.: The precinct numbers here on the site are still iffy, thanks to malformed feed data from the state, but the vote percentages are accurate. There are twenty-one precincts still unreported. Craig County has not reported any election results from any of their eleven precincts. Albemarle County, Halifax County, Isle of Wight County, Rappahannock County, Rockingham County, and Radford City each have one precinct still unreported. Dinwiddie County, Roanoke City, and Winchester City have not yet reported their central absentee precincts.
  • 1:25 a.m.: Many of the outstanding precincts are in rural counties that tend Republican, so although Senator Mark Warner (D-VA) is slightly ahead of Ed Gillespie (R) in the count, it is likely that the gap will narrow as the remaining precincts are reported. Off on a Tangent is not yet prepared to project an outcome.
  • 1:28 a.m.: Off on a Tangent is concluding our live coverage for the night. We will pick up again in the morning and reevaluate where the U.S. Senate race stands, and continue making updates (as time permits) until we are able to make a call. Thanks for tuning in!
  • 10:04 a.m.: Craig County has reported results for their eleven precincts, but the nine other counties and cities each remain with one outstanding precinct each. Senator Mark Warner (D) is showing ahead by just under 17,000 votes (less than 0.8% of total votes cast). It is very likely that Warner has eked out a narrow win, but given the unreliability of the official returns last year I am holding off on making a call until a few more precincts are counted. Warner has already declared victory (prematurely), but Ed Gillespie (R) has not yet conceded defeat. It is still likely that the gap will narrow, though it is unlikely to be enough to change the outcome.
  • 1:07 p.m.: I’ve finally worked out all of the weirdness and hassles with the Virginia Department of Elections feeds, which are still malformed and have lots of problems. I implemented a series of hacks to correct for their mistakes, and I’m finally getting precinct numbers that match up with the actual number of precincts. Better late than never!
  • 10:06 p.m.: Off on a Tangent can project that Senator Mark Warner (D-VA) has been reelected by a surprisingly narrow margin of less than one percent, defeating Ed Gillespie (R). Outstanding provisional ballots and recounts may narrow the margin, but it will not be sufficient to change the outcome.
  • 10:16 p.m.: With the call of the Senate race for Warner, we are concluding our live coverage. As the few remaining precincts come in, I’ll adjust the final numbers as needed.

November 2013 General Election

Per the Tangent style guide candidates are listed alphabetically by last name.
Winners are denoted with (w).

Virginia Governor
Ken Cuccinelli (R):45.2%
Terry McAuliffe (D):47.7% (w)
Robert Sarvis (L):6.5%
Other:0.5%
Virginia Lt. Governor
E.W. Jackson (R):44.5%
Ralph Northam (D):55.1% (w)
Other:0.4%
Virginia Atty. General *
Mark Herring (D):49.9%
Mark Obenshain (R):49.9%
Other:0.2%
Virginia House, 87th
John Bell (D):49.3%
David Ramadan (R):50.3% (w)
Other:0.4%
Loudoun Park Bonds
Yes:54.2% (w)
No:45.8%
Loudoun Transp Bonds
Yes:68.1% (w)
No:32.0%
Loudoun Fire Bonds
Yes:76.8% (w)
No:23.2%
Loudoun School Bonds
Yes:67.6% (w)
No:32.4%

* Off on a Tangent cannot independently verify the outcome of the Virginia Attorney General race due to serious ballot-handling and processing irregularities in Fairfax County and elsewhere. Mark Obenshain (R) conceded the race and the Virginia State Board of Elections certified Mark Herring (D) as the winner.

Election Updates

  • Off on a Tangent’s live election night coverage begins at 6:00 p.m. on November 5, 2013, and will continue until all of our covered races are called, or until 1:00 a.m. if races remain un-called. In that case, coverage will continue as time permits.
  • 11/05/2013, 6:38 p.m.: Our election coverage is now getting underway. Stay tuned!
  • 7:00 p.m.: The polls are closing in Virginia, although anybody in line a 7:00 p.m. will be allowed to cast their ballot, so results will take some time to begin trickling in.
  • 7:11 p.m.: The Virginia State Board of Election says forty precincts have reported results, but the results are still zero. Error!
  • 7:14 p.m.: The results are now beginning to come in. It is still too early for Off on a Tangent to project any winners.
  • 7:25 p.m.: Note that rural counties tend to report early, while more populous counties report later. This is why the Republican candidates often seem to be far ahead in the early reporting.
  • 7:41 p.m.: Results still trickling in at a snail’s pace as late voters finish filing through across the Commonwealth. In the 8-9 p.m. hour, I expect the pace to pick up.
  • 7:49 p.m.: Goochland County goes 100 percent for McAuliffe, according to the SBE results. Error!
  • 8:00 p.m.: Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ) has been reelected, according to CNN and others.
  • 8:03 p.m.: The Goochland County results have been fixed.
  • 8:15 p.m.: The general contours of the Virginia races are matching my expectations, but it is still too early to make any official calls.
  • 8:40 p.m.: The Virginia race is likely closer than polls indicated in the lead-up, consistent with my expectations as expressed yesterday.
  • 8:53 p.m.: The Virginia SBE web site is having a ‘healthcare.gov’ moment, which is slowing (but not stopping) my reporting.
  • 9:02 p.m.: Bill De Blasio (D) has been elected Mayor of New York City according to CNN and other outlets.
  • 9:10 p.m.: With about 80 percent of precincts reporting, the race for Governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia remains too close to call.
  • 9:22 p.m.: I am hoping to be able to start calling the local bond issues soon, but I cannot yet extrapolate a reliable county-wide result in Loudoun County. So far, there are no votes reported from the Ashburn district, and very few from the Broad Run and Sterling districts. The other five districts are well represented, but I can’t make a call until I have a good sample from all across the county.
  • 9:30 p.m.: Ralph Northam (D) has been elected Lieutenant Governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia, defeating E.W. Jackson (R) — Off on a Tangent call.
  • 9:32 p.m.: The Loudoun County Fire & Rescue Bond Referendum has passed — Off on a Tangent call.
  • 9:38 p.m.: With over 90 percent of precincts reporting, the the race for Governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia is still too close to call. At the moment, Cuccinelli (R) and McAuliffe (D) are within one percentage point of one another.
  • 9:54 p.m.: All Loudoun County Bond Referendums have passed — Off on a Tangent call.
  • 9:54 p.m.: CNN has called the governor’s race for McAuliffe (D). Off on a Tangent is not yet prepared to make a call.
  • 10:05 p.m.: Although McAuliffe (D) has likely won, it is too early to make an official call. I believe the networks are jumping the gun here. Too many results are outstanding to make a confident projection.
  • 10:36 p.m.: I’ve done a quick precinct-by-precinct analysis of outstanding Virginia gubernatorial results, and they are roughly evenly split (three ways) between precincts in strongly Republican counties, precincts in strongly Democratic counties, and precincts that are indeterminate. In addition, at least twenty of the precincts showing as reported have recorded no votes . . . which indicates that we are still working with some badly incomplete or erroneous data. With the candidates only about one percentage point apart, and no clear bias for one candidate or the other in the un-reported precincts, it is premature to make a call at this time (despite what you’re seeing on the news).
  • 11:10 p.m.: The SBE errata seems to be corrected now. I am now working on re-analyzing where the race stands with correct results (and new precinct reports). Standby.
  • 11:13 p.m.: Terry McAuliffe (D) has been narrowly elected Governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia, defeating Ken Cuccinelli (R) — Off on a Tangent call.
  • 11:18 p.m.: I still believe that major media outlets called the Virginia gubernatorial race prematurely, relying on erroneous and incomplete results. At the time the media made the calls, it was still possible for the remaining un-reported precincts to shift or significantly narrow the outcome. Off on a Tangent refrained from making a call until it was certain that the remaining precincts (and reporting irregularities) would not be enough to change the outcome.
  • 11:27 p.m.: There are still two races left to call in Off on a Tangent’s election night coverage. With over 99 percent of Virginia precincts reporting, Mark Herring (D) and Mark Obenshain (R) are separated by only half of one percent in the attorney general race. Obenshain is maintaining a razor-slim lead. With 96 percent of 87th District precincts reporting, John Bell (D) and David Ramadan (R) are also within one percent of each other, currently separated by less than two hundred votes. Ramadan is also hanging on to a razor-thin lead. Both races remain too close to call.
  • 11/06/2013, 12:03 a.m.: Mark Obenshain (R) has been elected by a razor-thin margin to be the next Attorney General of the Commonwealth of Virginia, defeating Mark Herring (D). This results in a split ticket, with Democratic candidates elected governor and lieutenant governor, and a Republican as attorney general — Off on a Tangent call.
  • 12:15 a.m.: David Ramadan (R) has been reelected by a razor-thin margin to the 87th District seat in the Virginia House of Delegates, defeating John Bell (D) — Off on a Tangent call.
  • 12:17 a.m.: Off on a Tangent has now made two calls ahead of the local (and national) media, calling the attorney general and 87th District delegate race. Although both races are extremely close, and the exact margins may change, there are not enough remaining ballots outstanding to change the outcomes.
  • 12:20 a.m.: All of the Off on a Tangent followed races have been called, so I am going to sign-off from our live coverage. I will continue to update the numbers as time permits in the coming days until the percentages are finalized. Thank you all for tuning in!
  • 9:10 a.m.: I have to rescind my call in the Virginia attorney general race (the first time I have had to rescind a call since I started live election coverage in 2004). Last night, Obenshain’s (R) lead over Herring (D) was large enough that it was impossible for Herring to make up the difference from the outstanding votes/precincts. Even if the outstanding precincts had gone overwhelmingly for Herring, which was unlikely since more than half of them were in rural counties that lean strongly Republican, it would not have been enough. Based on the SBE numbers as they stood last night, I was completely confident in my call. This morning, however, the Virginia State Board of Elections is reporting Herring with a slight lead. It appears that the SBE reported wildly inaccurate numbers at some point, although it is unclear whether the numbers last night were wrong, or the numbers this morning are. Pending some clarity, I am moving the race back to ‘too close to call.’
  • 12:00 p.m.: Obenshain (R) has pulled into a very slim lead over Herring (D) again, and the SBE is now reporting that 100 percent of precincts have reported results. Although I now suspect my original call was correct, I am holding-off on making the call as I no longer trust the accuracy of the SBE results.
  • 10:40 p.m.: Once again, we can project that Mark Obenshain (R) has been elected Attorney General of the Commonwealth of Virginia, defeating Mark Herring (D) by a razor-thin margin. Although provisional ballots remain to be adjudicated and counted, it is virtually impossible that they will change the outcome (except, perhaps, through fraud). I apologize for the back-and-forth on this race, which was driven by erroneous results data posted earlier today by the State Board of Elections — Off on a Tangent call.
  • 11/07/2013, 12:23 p.m.: Here’s a partial rationale for my Obenshain call, since some may wonder why I’m out ahead of the media on this one. Let’s assume that each county in Virginia has a number of provisional ballots equal to 0.19 percent of the vote (which is an over-estimate; the real number is likely more like 0.16 or 0.17 percent). And let’s assume that they are all accepted by county election officials (which won’t happen, as there are specific conditions for accepting and rejecting provisional ballots). And let’s assume that the provisional ballots in each county go for Herring by a whopping 10 percent greater margin than the rest of the ballots in that particular county did (also a huge over-estimate in Herring’s favor). Even with all of that, Obenshain still leads by about 275 votes. Excluding the slim possibilities of major counting errors, or election fraud during the recount(s), there’s no way for Herring to pull this out.
  • 11/11/2013, 11:45 a.m.: The attorney general’s race is turning out to be a real mess. When I made the call for Obenshain (R) (the second time), there were rumors that Fairfax County (which went overwhelmingly for Herring [D]) had not yet counted ‘thousands’ of votes from one or more precincts. County officials categorically denied these rumors, which was a partial basis for my assumption that the totals would not change significantly and that provisional ballots (and small counting errors) were the only variables still in play. Then, on Friday, Fairfax County officials ‘found’ over 3,000 absentee ballots that had not been counted properly . . . unsurprisingly from the most Democratic-leaning part of the county. Some things never change. Re-running my analysis with the now more-narrow results shows a possibility that provisional ballots will turn the race, though it is still unlikely. I am not rescinding my call at this time, but I am continuing to watch the developments. I also call on Fairfax County to stop with the shenanigans, count the votes properly, and report the votes properly.
  • 11/13/2013, 1:20 p.m.: Herring (D) has declared himself the victor in the race for attorney general. The State Board of Elections now shows him with a 164 vote lead over Obenshain (R). Local canvassing is complete, but the SBE still needs to do their own review, and we still have a recount ahead of us. Considering how bizarre and inaccurate the numbers have been coming out of Fairfax County and Richmond City (both strong Democratic Party enclaves), I’m moving the race back to ‘too close to call’ . . . again. I am fearful that we might end up with a ‘stolen election’ situation akin to that in the Washington gubernatorial election of 2004.
  • 11/18/2013, 5:07 p.m.: Given that we will not have any progress in the attorney general race for many weeks, I am ending our official Off on a Tangent ongoing coverage. Occasional updates will continue on our main site.
  • 12/18/2013, 4:45 p.m.: Obenshain (R) has conceded defeat following a recount that increased Herring’s (D) official margin to over eight hundred votes. Off on a Tangent no longer has confidence in the integrity of the official results due a number of irregularities, especially in Fairfax County where thousands of ballots appear to have been handled or processed incorrectly. We cannot project with any confidence that Herring actually won, let alone by what margin, although it is a moot point following Obenshain’s concession.
  • This concludes Off on a Tangent’s 2013 election coverage.

November 2012 General Election

Per the Tangent style guide candidates are listed alphabetically by last name.
Winners are denoted with (w).

President of the United States

Barack Obama (D)
Electors: 332 (w)

California (55)
Colorado (9)
Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
D.C. (3)
Florida (29)
Hawaii (4)
Illinois (20)
Iowa (6)
Maine (4)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (11)
Michigan (16)
Minnesota (10)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
New Jersey (14)
New Mexico (5)
New York (29)
Ohio (18)
Oregon (7)
Pennsylvania (20)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)
Virginia (13)
Washington (12)
Wisconsin (10)

Mitt Romney (R)
Electors: 206

Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arizona (11)
Arkansas (6)
Georgia (16)
Idaho (4)
Indiana (11)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (8)
Mississippi (6)
Missouri (10)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (5)
North Carolina (15)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (9)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Texas (38)
Utah (6)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)

U.S. President (Virginia)
Virgil Goode (C):0.3%
Gary Johnson (L):0.8%
Barack Obama (D):51.1% (w)
Mitt Romney (R):47.2%
Jill Stein (G):0.2%
Other:0.3%
U.S. Senate, VA
George Allen (R):46.9%
Tim Kaine (D):52.8% (w)
Other:0.2%
U.S. House, VA-10th
Kristin Cabral (D):38.7%
Kevin Chisholm (I):2.7%
Frank Wolf (R):58.4% (w)
Other:0.2%
Virginia Property Amendment
Yes:74.5% (w)
No:25.5%
Virginia Veto Amendment
Yes:81.9% (w)
No:18.1%
Loudoun Fire Bonds
Yes:78.9% (w)
No:21.1%
Loudoun School Bonds
Yes:67.9% (w)
No:32.1%

Election Updates

  • Off on a Tangent’s live election night coverage begins at 6:00 p.m. on November 6, 2012, and will continue until at least 1:00 a.m. Stay tuned.
  • November 6, 2012;6:00 p.m. ET: I’m now kicking-off the Off on a Tangent live election coverage. Stay tuned through the evening as I publish live results for all races in-which I am eligible to vote, including the presidential race, and bring you important updates from important races nationwide.
  • 6:05 p.m. ET: Polls in the Eastern Time Zone sections of Indiana and Kentucky have already closed, but polls in the Central Time Zone are still open. Results from those states are starting to trickle in, but I will not make any calls in a state until all of its polls are closed. In other words, don’t expect any concrete results until after 7:00 p.m.
  • 6:11 p.m. ET: Around the web you’ll start seeing a lot of stuff about exit polls and turnout from each side, trying to make themselves look stronger or feel better. Don’t let them concern you. And don’t let them get your hopes up either. Data means nothing without context.
  • 6:38 p.m. ET: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia’s polls all close at 7:00 p.m. In addition, North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia’s polls close at 7:30 p.m. You can expect many (but not all) of these states to get called for one candidate or the other within the hour.
  • 6:55 p.m. ET: And the fun is about to begin.
  • 7:01 p.m. ET: Making our first calls of the evening. Lots more to come.
  • 7:24 p.m. ET: I’m continuing to monitor the results in the presidential election. In addition, I’m waiting for numbers to start coming in for all the other races and ballot issues I’m following. The Virginia State Board of Elections has not published any returns yet. I expect them to start trickling in soon.
  • 7:40 p.m. ET: Virginia results are starting to trickle in. I’m still unable to call five states where the polls closed at 7:00 or 7:30 p.m. Seventeen states and the District of Columbia’s polls close at 8:00 p.m., and one more state closes at 8:30 p.m. I expect to be making many calls over the next hour.
  • 7:46 p.m. ET: If you are following the Virginia State Board of Elections results directly, please be aware that they [inexplicably] have two separate results sites. One of them, located at http://electionresults.virginia.gov, seems to be getting data and that is what I am monitoring now. Their other site, which is linked from the SBE web site’s menu, doesn’t seem to be receiving updates. Go figure.
  • 8:02 p.m. ET: Making a number of calls among the states where polls closed at 8:00 p.m.
  • 8:23 p.m. ET: Virginia returns are now being published pretty rapidly by the State Board of Elections. Not quite ready to make any calls in the state and local races yet.
  • 8:42 p.m. ET: There is very little indication so far as to which way this thing is going. Lots of conflicting and preliminary data that can be ignored. So far, the only states with clear results are states that were already considered ‘safe’ for one candidate or the other. The ‘swing states’ are all still up-in-the-air.
  • 8:57 p.m. ET: Another thirteen states’ polls close at 9:00 p.m. We also still have seven states where polls closed earlier in the evening that are still too close (or too early) to call.
  • 9:04 p.m. ET: CNN, ABC, Fox, and probably others are calling North Dakota for Mitt Romney. However, polls are not yet closed in North Dakota, so this call appears to have been made in violation of industry standards. North Dakota’s polls do not close until 11:00 p.m. Eastern time.
  • 9:07 p.m. ET: CNN is reporting that the Republican Party will maintain a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
  • 9:23 p.m. ET: Pennsylvania and Michigan both go for Obama, which was not unexpected but some media outlets were treating them as swing states. The real swing states are still too close or too early to call.
  • 9:28 p.m. ET: Wisconsin goes for Obama, the first real swing state to be called. This is an early indicator that the ‘Romney landslide’ scenario, which I estimated had a fifteen percent chance of playing out, will probably not happen. The calls so-far are consistent with either my first (narrow Romney win) or second (narrow Obama win) prediction scenarios.
  • 9:31 p.m. ET: Fox News projects that the Republican Party doesn’t just maintain its majority in the House, but gains seats as well.
  • 9:53 p.m. ET: Off on a Tangent can now project that both Virginia ballot issues and both Loudoun County Bond Referendums have PASSED.
  • 10:15 p.m. ET: CNN projects that the Democratic Party will maintain a majority in the U.S. Senate.
  • 10:40 p.m. ET: Off on a Tangent can project that Representative Frank Wolf (R) has been reelected and will continue to represent Virginia’s 10th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.
  • 11:03 p.m. ET: A bunch of new calls now that the west coast states’ polls have closed. The only state with its polls still open at this time is Alaska, which will not close its westernmost precincts until 1:00 a.m Eastern. Seven states remain either too close to call or too early to call.
  • 11:06 p.m. ET: Off on a Tangent can project that former Governor Tim Kaine (D) has been elected to represent Virginia in the United States Senate.
  • 11:15 p.m. ET: President Obama has won Ohio.
  • 11:17 p.m. ET: Off on a Tangent projects that President Barack Obama has been reelected.
  • November 7, 2012; 12:25 a.m. ET: I’ve called all states except Alaska (where the polls have not yet closed), Florida, and Virginia. Obama is polling slightly ahead in both Florida and Virginia, but the races there are still too close to call. If Obama wins Florida, Virginia, or both, he would significantly outperform my predicted ‘narrow Obama win’ scenario, which I estimated had a forty percent chance of occurring.
  • 12:42 a.m. ET: Virginia goes narrowly for Obama.
  • 12:50 a.m. ET: Former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) has conceded the election to President Barack Obama (D), and will likely be making a concession speech shortly.
  • 12:55 a.m. ET: Romney is now making his concession speech at his campaign headquarters in Boston, Massachusetts.
  • 1:35 a.m. ET: Obama is now making his reelection acceptance speech at his campaign headquarters in Chicago, Illinois.
  • 2:32 a.m. ET: Obama maintains a narrow lead in Florida, but it is close enough that I am not comfortable making a call at this time. Florida is the only state not yet called. In the Virginia state and local races, there are still thirty precincts (including provisional ballot precincts) outstanding.
  • 2:35 a.m. ET: My live coverage is ending at this time. I will continue to update the results with the last few outstanding items in the coming days as time permits. Thanks for tuning in!
  • November 9, 2012; 10:10 a.m. ET: Any day now, Florida. Still too close to call, so we don’t have a final electoral count yet. There are also still thirteen precincts outstanding in Virginia, but I don’t expect any race to move my any more than half a percentage point (so, due to rounding, the worst you should expect to see is a one-point shift). I hope to be able to close out my coverage with totally final results soon.
  • 12:35 p.m. ET: I’m calling Florida for Obama. Even if Romney wins outstanding provisional ballots by a significant amount, which is unlikely anyway, he still would not be able to close the gap. This completes the electoral map, with Obama ahead of Romney by 332-206. Periodic updates to the state races will continue until all Virginia precincts have reported.
  • November 12; 1:00 p.m. ET: Virginia results have slowed to a trickle, but there are still six laggard precincts that have not yet reported results. The problem jurisdictions that have not reported all of their results are Bedford County (1 precinct), Fairfax County (2 precincts), Prince William County (1 precinct), Richmond City (1 precinct), and Roanoke City (1 precinct).
  • November 15; 1:40 p.m. ET: Four Virginia precincts still haven’t reported their election results. The laggards are Bedford County (1 precinct), Fairfax County (2 precincts), and Prince William County (1 precinct). I can’t call my results final until all precincts have reported.
  • November 23; 10:40 a.m. ET: The same four precincts still haven’t reported. It’s been almost three weeks since the election. I’m not waiting any more. I’m calling these results final and closing our coverage.

November 2011 General Election

Per the Tangent style guide candidates are listed alphabetically by last name.
Winners are denoted with (w).

Virginia Senate, 13th
Dick Black (R):57.0% (w)
Shawn Mitchell (D):42.8%
Other:0.3%
Virginia House, 87th
Mike Kondratick (D):49.4%
David Ramadan (R):49.9% (w)
Other:0.6%
Loudoun Board (Chairman)
Thomas Bellanca (D):35.2%
Scott York (R):64.4% (w)
Other:0.3%
Loudoun Board (Dulles)
Matthew Letourneau (R):63.3% (w)
Larry Roeder (D):36.4%
Other:0.3%
Loudoun Treasurer
H. Roger Zurn Jr. (R):98.9% (w)
Other:1.1%
Loudoun Sheriff
Michael Chapman (R):54.2% (w)
Steve Simpson (I):35.3%
Ron Speakman (I):10.1%
Other:0.4%
Loudoun Com. Attorney
James Plowman (R):51.8% (w)
Jennifer Wexton (D):47.9%
Other:0.2%
Loudoun Comm. of Revenue
Robert Wertz Jr. (R):98.8% (w)
Other:1.2%
Loudoun Sch. Board (At-Large)
Jay Bose:12.1%
Bob Ohneiser:31.1%
Tom Reed:56.2% (w)
Other:0.7%
Loudoun Sch. Board (Dulles)
Anjan Chimaladinne:30.0%
Margaret Michaud:10.9%
Jeff Morse:58.9% (w)
Other:0.3%
Loudoun S&W Conservation
Peter Rush:35.4% (w)
Chris Simmons:37.6% (w)
James Wylie:26.2% (w)
Other:0.8%
Loudoun Fire Bonds
Yes:72.2% (w)
No:27.8%
Loudoun School Bonds
Yes:57.9% (w)
No:42.1%

Election Updates

  • Nov. 7, 2011; 11:30 p.m.: Election live coverage is scheduled to begin at about 7pm on Election Day (Tuesday, November 8, 2011). Live results will be published above for all races in-which I have made an endorsement, and this live blog will include any noteworthy results from these and other races. Stay tuned!
  • Nov. 8, 2011; 7:00 p.m.: Live coverage is getting underway. Stay tuned for live results as they come in.
  • Nov. 8, 2011; 8:00 p.m.: Loudoun’s results have not yet begun to come in. Running a little slow this year.
  • Nov. 8, 2011; 8:23pm: Results finally beginning to come in. Off on a Tangent projects Bob Wertz (R) has been reelected as Loudoun Revenue Commissioner and Roger Zurn (R) has been reelected as Loudoun Treasurer (both running unopposed).
  • Nov. 8, 2011; 9:54pm: Off on a Tangent projects that the Loudoun County fire & rescue bonds referendum has passed.
  • Nov. 8, 2011; 10:10 p.m.: Off on a Tangent projects that Peter Rush (D), Chris Simmons (G), and James Wylie (I)?the three incumbent members of the Loudoun Soil & Water Commission Board?have won reelection (unopposed).
  • Nov. 8, 2011; 10:15pm: CNN and other media report that voters in Ohio have voted to repeal a state law limiting collective bargaining for public workers. Voters in Ohio have also voted to exempt state residents from the unconstitutional federal health care mandate. Ohio, a key Presidential battleground state, is being watched closely for hints as to how it will vote in next year’s national elections. The Ohio results give no clear indication, with a vote in favor of the Democratic Party on the collective bargaining issue but against them on the health care issue.
  • Nov. 8, 2011; 10:23pm: Off on a Tangent projects that incumbent Tom Reed (R) has won reelection to the Loudoun County School Board (At-Large), defeating challengers Bob Ohneiser (D) and Jay Bose (I).
  • Nov. 8, 2011; 10:55pm: Off on a Tangent projects that Jeff Morse (R) has been elected to the Loudoun County School Board (Dulles District), defeating Anjan Chimaladinne (I) and Margaret Michaud (I).
  • Nov. 8, 2011; 10:57pm: CNN and other media report that voters in Mississippi have rejected a state constitutional amendment that would have legally defined human life as beginning at conception. If the amendment had passed, Mississippi would have been the first state to recognize the fundamental human rights of the unborn.
  • Nov. 8, 2011; 11:01pm: Off on a Tangent projects that Mike Chapman (R) has been elected as Loudoun County Sheriff, defeating incumbent Steve Simpson (I) and Ron Speakman (I).
  • Nov. 8, 2011; 11:05pm: Off on a Tangent projects that incumbent Scott York (R) has won reelection as Chairman of the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors, defeating challenger Tom Bellanca (D).
  • Nov. 8, 2011; 11:08pm: Off on a Tangent projects that Matt Letourneau (R) has been elected to the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors (Dulles District), defeating Larry Roeder (D).
  • Nov. 8, 2011; 11:20 p.m.: Off on a Tangent projects that Dick Black (R) has been elected to the Virginia Senate (13th District), defeating Shawn Mitchell (D).
  • Nov. 8, 2011; 11:47pm: Off on a Tangent projects that the Loudoun County school bonds referendum has passed by a surprisingly narrow margin. The returns have been unusually diverse, with the referendum passing by a large margin in some precincts and losing by a similarly large margin in others. With approx. 80 percent of precincts reporting at this time, Off on a Tangent is confident that the referendum will pass, although the size of the margin is still likely to fluctuate.
  • Nov. 9, 2011; 12:50 a.m.: Off on a Tangent projects that incumbent Jim Plowman (R) has narrowly won reelection as Loudoun County Commonwealth’s Attorney, defeating challenger Jennifer Wexton (D). Although there are several precincts that have not yet reported results in this race, they will not be sufficient to close Plowman’s nearly-2,000 vote margin.
  • Nov. 9, 2011; 1:05am: Only one race being monitored by Off on a Tangent is still outstanding. The race between Mike Kondratick (D) and David Ramadan (R) to represent the 87th District in the Virginia House of Delegates is still too close to call. As of right now, Ramadan is leading by 50 votes. The Dulles South precinct currently reports zero votes for the race, so it would appear that the State Board of Elections’ claim that 100 percent of precincts are reporting is incorrect. The results from Dulles South, combined with outstanding provisional votes from other precincts in Loudoun and Prince William counties, could be enough to turn the race.
  • Nov. 9, 2011; 1:45am: The 87th District race for the Virginia House of Delegates is still too-close-to-call. David Ramadan (R) leads Mike Kondratick (D) by 50 votes. It appears at this time that all votes have been counted, but the race is close enough that there will be an automatic recount. The Dulles South discrepancy mentioned previous is because the Dulles South precinct splits between the 67th and 87th District. The part of the Dulles South precinct that overlaps the 87th District is a commercial area, so it is not unreasonable that there would actually be zero 87th District votes in the Dulles South precinct. At this time it appears that Ramadan has likely been elected, but because provisional ballots have not yet been counted and the looming recount Off on a Tangent cannot yet make a projection.
  • Nov. 9, 2011; 1:50 a.m.: Off on a Tangent live election coverage is concluding for the evening with the 87th District race still outstanding. I will continue to update the results and make entries as time permits in the coming days. Once all of the results are finalized, the title of this post will be updated to indicate that it is ‘final.’
  • Nov. 9, 2011; 10:51am: There has been no change in the count for the 87th District race since last night, with Ramadan (R) still leading Kondratick (D) by a mere 50 votes (out of approx. 10,800 votes cast). Provisional ballots have not yet been counted, and it is expected that there will be at least one automatic recount. It also appears at this time that Republicans have gained two seats in the Virginia Senate, setting up a 20-20 tie. This is an effective shift from a Democratic to Republican majority, as Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling (R) would serve as the tie breaker. Total election turnout appears to have been well below 30 percent, fairly typical of an off-year state and local election.
  • Nov. 9, 2011; 1:49pm: Late this morning, David Ramadan (R) declared victory over Mike Kondratick in the 87th District House of Delegates race. Ramadan’s 50-vote margin remains stable, however the State Board of Elections has not yet released provisional ballot counts. Off on a Tangent cannot confidently project a winner in this race until it is known how many valid provisional ballots remain un-counted in the 87th District.
  • Nov. 9, 2011; 10:56pm: With provisional ballots counted, Off on a Tangent can now project that David Ramadan (R) has been narrowly elected to represent the 87th District in the Virginia House of Delegates, defeating Mike Kondratick (D). Losing by only 51 votes out of the over-10,800 cast in the district, Kondratick has the right to request a state-funded recount, but we do not believe it will have any material impact on the outcome.
  • Nov. 9, 2011; 10:57pm: With all Off on a Tangent monitored races now called, this concludes our 2011 election coverage.

November 2010 General Election

Per the Tangent style guide candidates are listed alphabetically by last name.
Winners are denoted with (w).

U.S. House, VA-10th
Jeff Barnett (D):34.8%
William Redpath (L):2.2%
Frank Wolf (R):62.9% (w)
Other:0.1%
Virginia Tax Amendment #1
Yes:75.9% (w)
No:24.1%
Virginia Tax Amendment #2
Yes:82.4% (w)
No:17.6%
Virginia Rainy Day Amend.
Yes:51.2% (w)
No:48.8%
Loudoun School Bonds
Yes:54.5% (w)
No:45.5%

Election Updates

  • My last minute predictions (slightly modified from last week):
    • U.S. Senate: Republicans gain 8 seats; Democrats maintain a 51/49 majority.
    • U.S. House of Representatives: Republicans gain 62 seats for a 240/195 majority.
  • 11/02/2010 6:00 p.m.: Off on a Tangent live coverage is getting underway and will continue at least until midnight. Additional updates will be made in the coming day(s) as time permits until all of the final numbers are available. Once coverage terminates, this post will be marked ‘Final.’
  • 11/02/2010 7:00 p.m.: CNN has made its first call of the night, projecting that Rand Paul (R)?son of Representative Ron Paul (R-TX 14th)?has been elected Senator from Kentucky.
  • 11/02/2010 8:00 p.m.: CNN projects Chris Coons (D) wins in Delaware, Marco Rubio (R) wins in Florida for U.S. Senate.
  • 11/02/2010 8:05pm: Off on a Tangent projects that Representative Frank Wolf (R) has won reelection for Virginia’s 10th District in the U.S. House of Representatives.
  • 11/02/2010 8:07pm: Off on a Tangent projects that the Virginia constitutional amendment presented on the ballot as Question #2 (establishing a permanent tax exemption for disabled military veterans) has passed.
  • 11/02/2010 8:20 p.m.: Off on a Tangent projects that the Virginia constitutional amendment presented on the ballot as Question #1 (devolving authority over tax exemptions for the elderly & disabled to localities) has passed.
  • 11/02/2010 8:50 p.m.: CNN and other media are projecting that Robert Hurt (R) has defeated incumbent Representative Tom Perriello (D) in Virginia’s 5th District in the U.S. House of Representatives.
  • 11/02/2010 9:15pm: CNN projects the Republican Party will gain at least 50 seats and become the majority party in the U.S. House of Representatives.
  • 11/02/2010 10:36pm: Off on a Tangent projects that the Loudoun County school bond referendum has passed with approx. 55 percent of the vote, a surprisingly narrow margin (bond referendums traditionally pass with over 60 percent of the vote).
  • 11/02/2010 10:42pm: CNN is projecting that Republicans will see a net-gain of more than 54 seats in the House of Representatives, making tonight’s win larger than the 1994 ‘Republican Revolution’ in the House.
  • 11/02/2010 10:52pm: NBC, Reuters, and others project that Senator Russ Feingold (D), who has served as U.S. Senator from Wisconsin since 1993, has lost his reelection bid to Ron Johnson (R).
  • 11/02/2010 11:15pm: Local media report that Maryland’s Governor O’Malley (D) has won reelection, defeating former Governor Bob Ehrlich (R). Vincent Gray (D) has been formally elected mayor of Washington, DC. Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton has been reelected as Washington, DC’s non-voting delegate to the U.S. House of Representatives.
  • 11/02/2010 11:53pm: Off on a Tangent projects that the Virginia constitutional amendment presented on the ballot as Question #3 (regarding the permissible size of the ‘rainy day fund’) has passed narrowly. This is the final race being followed directly by Off on a Tangent. General election coverage will continue.
  • 11/02/2010 11:57pm: CNN is projecting that the Democratic Party will maintain their U.S. Senate majority, with Republicans falling short of the necessary 51 seats.
  • 11/02/2010 11:58pm: The Washington Post and other media project that Senator Barbara Boxer (D) will win reelection as U.S. Senator from California, defeating challenger Carly Fiorina (R).
  • 11/03/2010 12:35am: CNN projects Mark Kirk (R) has won election as U.S. Senator from Illinois, defeating Alexi Giannoulias (D) for the seat formerly held by President Barack Obama (D).
  • 11/03/2010 12:39am: CNN projects Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) has been reelected as U.S. Senator from Nevada, defeating challenger Sharron Angle (R).
  • 11/03/2010 12:50 p.m.: CNN is now projecting that the Republican Party will see a net-gain of at least 60 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.
  • 11/03/2010 1:00 a.m.: Off on a Tangent live coverage is ending for the night. The U.S. Senate currently stands at 51/46 (Democratic majority) with Colorado, Washington, and Alaska still outstanding. The House of Representatives stands at 220/146 (Republican majority) with 69 seats still too close to call. Coverage will continue (as time permits) beginning tomorrow morning and continuing until all races are settled.
  • 11/03/2010 10:52am: The U.S. Senate still stands at 51/46 (Democratic majority) with Colorado, Washington, and Alaska still outstanding. The House of Representatives now stands at 240/185 (Republican majority) with 10 seats still outstanding.
  • 11/04/2010 10:40 a.m.: Representative Gerry Connolly (D) has narrowly won reelection to the U.S. House of Representatives from Virginia’s 11th District, defeating challenger Keith Fimian (R). While no major media outlet has called the race, and Fimian has not yet conceded, Off on a Tangent believes the outstanding provisional ballots will not be sufficient to close the approx. 900 vote margin.
  • 11/04/2010 2:00 p.m.: Reports are slowing to a trickle at this point, but I’m not quite ready to conclude coverage. Here’s where we stand:
    • There are still five precincts outstanding in Virginia, so the above results for officially-covered Off on a Tangent races are not completely final yet.
    • Senator Murkowski (R) likely wins as a write-in independent in Alaska (she will almost definitely caucus with the Republicans and, as such, I’m counting her as a Republican win).
    • Murray (D) likely wins in Washington, beating Rossi (R). This isn’t a sure thing yet and a lot of returns are still outstanding.
    • Assuming Murkowski and Murray win, the Senate stands at 53/47 (Democratic majority). I had predicted Republicans winning two more seats, but they narrowly lost in Colorado and Nevada. I correctly predicted the Democrats maintaining their majority.
    • The House of Representatives still stands at 239/187 (Republican majority) with nine seats outstanding. This is very close to my 240/195 prediction.
  • 11/05/2010 2:50 p.m.: We are inching closer to a conclusion of the 2010 ‘midterm’ elections.
    • Virginia Results: Five precincts have yet to report properly in Virginia. I consider this to be unacceptable. One is in Craig County, one is in Pittsylvania County, and three are in my former home-town of Bedford City.
    • U.S. Senate: Murray (D) has won Washington. Murkowski (R) has likely won Alaska as a write-in independent, with Miller (R) leading comfortably among names actually on the ballot. Alaska definitely stays Republican either way. The U.S. Senate balance of power will be 53/47 with a Democratic majority.
    • U.S. House of Representatives: After reviewing outstanding races, I’m confident in projecting a U.S. House balance of power at 243/192 with a Republican majority. Two of those races (currently projected for Democrats; see below) are very, very close and could possibly shift the balance up-to two more seats for the Republicans (245/190).
    • Media outlets are being unnecessarily reticent in making calls, and still report 9 seats outstanding in the House.
      • Four of them have clear victors and the networks should make the calls already: AZ 8th for Democrats, CA twentieth for Republicans, VA 11th for Democrats, WA 2nd for Democrats.
      • Three of them have likely victors and networks should consider calling them: IL 8th for Republicans, NY 25th for Republicans, TX 27th for Republicans.
      • Only two are legitimately ‘too close to call’ at this time: CA 11th and KY 6th, both with very narrow Democratic leads.
  • 11/06/2010 7:45pm: I’m ending my continuing coverage at this time. Here’s where we stand:
    • The Virginia State Board of Elections has made no statement on why four precincts have yet to report some of their results (or why the total number of precincts dropped from 2,520 to 2,519). These outstanding precincts will not be enough to materially change any results in any of the followed races, so rather than waiting indefinitely I’m going to let the above results stand as follows.
    • As mentioned before, the U.S. Senate balance of power will be 53/47 with a Democratic majority. The only outstanding item is a definitive determination of whether Senator Murkowski (R) wins reelection in Alaska as a write-in independent (most likely) or whether Joe Miller (R) wins. Both are Republicans, so either outcome will not effect the balance of power.
    • I still expect that the U.S House of Representatives balance of power will be 243/192 with a Republican majority. There are two races (currently in the Democratic column) that are legitimately too close to call, so there is a chance that this will shift a bit in the Republicans’ favor to 244/191 or 245/190, but 243/192 is currently the most likely outcome.

November 2009 General Election

Per the Tangent style guide candidates are listed alphabetically by last name.
Winners are denoted with (w).

Virginia Governor
Creigh Deeds (D):41.3%
Bob McDonnell (R):58.6% (w)
Other:0.1%
Virginia Lt. Governor
Bill Bolling (R):56.5% (w)
Jody Wagner (D):43.4%
Other:0.1%
Virginia Atty. General
Ken Cuccinelli (R):57.5% (w)
Stephen Shannon (D):42.4%
Other:0.1%
Virginia House, 86th
Stevens Miller (D):46.0%
Tom Rust (R):53.8% (w)
Other:0.2%
Fairfax School Bonds
Yes:70.2% (w)
No:29.8%

Election Updates

  • 11/3/2009 7:59pm: Major media including the Associated Press are beginning to call the Virginia gubernatorial race for Bob McDonnell (R). Off on a Tangent has not yet made a projection.
  • 11/3/2009 8:27pm: Off on a Tangent projects a Republican sweep for Virginia statewide offices. Bob McDonnell (R) has been elected Governor, Bill Bolling (R) has been reelected Lieutenant Governor, and Ken Cuccinelli (R) has been elected Attorney General each with roughly 60 percent of the vote.
  • 11/3/2009 8:37pm: The Virginia State Board of Elections (SBE) has a very serious error right now with results from Loudoun County. The county is showing over 2.8 million votes for McDonnell, which is about ten times the population of the county and is obviously a [very, very large] data-entry error. Off on a Tangent is temporarily freezing percentages until this is fixed.
  • 11/3/2009 8:49pm: The data entry error (see below) appears to have been repaired and Off on a Tangent is resuming percentage reporting.
  • 11/3/2009 8:56pm: Creigh Deeds (D) has conceded the Virginia gubernatorial election to Bob McDonnell (R).
  • 11/3/2009 8:59pm: Off on a Tangent projects that the Fairfax County School Bonds Referendum has passed with about 70 percent of the vote.
  • 11/3/2009 9:38pm: Bob McDonnell (R) accepted election as the next Governor of Virginia in a speech in Richmond.
  • 11/3/2009 10:07pm: The Associated Press and other media are projecting that Chris Christie (R) has been elected as Governor of New Jersey, defeating incumbent Jon Corzine (D). New Jersey and Virginia are the only two states holding gubernatorial elections this year. Off on a Tangent is not following this race and will make no independent projection.
  • 11/3/2009 10:28pm: Off on a Tangent projects that Tom Rust (R) has won reelection as the 86th District Delegate in the Virginia House of Delegates with about 54 percent of the vote.
  • 11/3/2009 10:56pm: CNN and other media are projecting that Michael Bloomberg (I) has been reelected as Mayor of New York City in a race that was closer than many had expected. Off on a Tangent is not following this race and will make no independent projection.
  • 11/3/2009 11:32pm: NBC News has called New York’s 23rd District House of Representatives seat for Bill Owens (D) over Doug Hoffman (Conservative). At this point, no other media have called this highly contested race. Off on a Tangent is not following this race and will make no independent projection.
  • 11/3/2009 11:40 p.m.: Off on a Tangent is suspending live election coverage for the evening (having already made calls for all followed races). This post will be updated as time permits on Wednesday.
  • 11/4/2009 7:15am: The Associated Press and other media reported late last night that voters in Maine have repealed a state law (through referendum) that would have permitted homosexual marriage in the state. Off on a Tangent is not following this race and will make no independent projection.
  • 11/4/2009 12:30 p.m.: There are still six Virginia precincts that haven’t reported their results. I’ll continue making occasional updates (whenever I have a minute) until everything is finalized.
  • 11/6/2009 8:12pm: With 100 percent of Virginia precincts now reporting (finally!), Off on a Tangent is marking the above 2009 election results as ‘final’ and ending our coverage. Thanks for joining us!

February 2009 Special Election

Per the Tangent style guide candidates are listed alphabetically by last name.
Winners are denoted with (w).

Fairfax Board (Chairman)
Sharon Bulova (D):50.0% (w)
Carey Campbell (IG):0.4%
Christopher DeCarlo (I):0.7%
Pat Herrity (R):48.8%
Other:0.0%

Election Updates

  • Off on a Tangent can project that Supervisor Sharon Bulova (D-Braddock) has narrowly won election as the Chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors. This concludes our live coverage of the 2/3/2009 special election.

November 2008 General Election

Per the Tangent style guide candidates are listed alphabetically by last name.
Winners are denoted with (w).

President of the United States

John McCain (R)
Electors: 173

Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arizona (10)
Arkansas (6)
Georgia (15)
Idaho (4)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (9)
Mississippi (6)
Missouri (11)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (4) (split)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (8)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Texas (34)
Utah (5)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)

Barack Obama (D)
Electors: 365 (w)

California (55)
Colorado (9)
Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
D.C. (3)
Florida (27)
Hawaii (4)
Illinois (21)
Indiana (11)
Iowa (7)
Maine (4)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (12)
Michigan (17)
Minnesota (10)
Nebraska (1) (split)
Nevada (5)
New Hampshire (4)
New Jersey (15)
New Mexico (5)
New York (31)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (20)
Oregon (7)
Pennsylvania (21)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)
Virginia (13)
Washington (11)
Wisconsin (10)

U.S. President (Virginia)
Chuck Baldwin (I):0.2%
Bob Barr (L):0.3%
John McCain (R):46.3%
Cynthia McKinney (G):0.1%
Barack Obama (D):52.6% (w)
Other:0.2%
U.S. Senate, VA
Jim Gilmore (R):33.7%
Gail Parker (IG):0.6%
William Redpath (L):0.6%
Mark Warner (D):65.0% (w)
Other:0.1%
U.S. House, VA-10th
Judy Feder (D):38.8%
Neeraj Nigam (I):2.2%
Frank Wolf (R):58.8% (w)
Other:0.1%
Fairfax Parks Bonds
Yes:67.6% (w)
No:32.4%

Election Updates

  • Off on a Tangent live coverage ended at 1am on 11/5/2008. This entry will be updated as time permits over the coming day(s) with the final electoral college calls and final numbers for other races. After coverage comes to a complete close, the title will be marked (Final).
  • Off on a Tangent, based on media projections, can report that Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) has been elected the 44th President of the United States with at least 349 electoral votes. Obama, who is biracial (black/white), will be the first non-white President of the United States. Senator John McCain (R-AZ) conceded the election in a speech at approx. 11:20 p.m. EST. Obama accepted his election in a speech at about 12am on Nov. 5.
  • Off on a Tangent, based on media projections, can report that Barack Obama has won Virginia’s 13 electoral votes, in addition to other major ‘swing states’ Ohio and Pennsylvania.
  • Off on a Tangent can project, with 100 percent of precincts reporting, that the Fairfax County Parks & Park Facilities Bond Referendum has passed by a significant margin.
  • Off on a Tangent, based on media projections, can report that the Democratic Party will maintain a majority in the United States Senate with at least 56 seats.
  • Off on a Tangent can project, with 100 percent of 10th District precincts reporting, that Representative Frank Wolf (R-VA 10th) has won reelection over Democratic challenger Judy Feder.
  • Off on a Tangent can project, with over 100 percent of Virginia precincts reporting, that former Governor Mark Warner (D-VA) has defeated former Governor Jim Gilmore (R-VA) for the U.S. Senate seat from Virginia. Warner will be taking the seat being vacated by retiring Senator John Warner (R-VA) (no relation).

November 2007 General Election

Per the Tangent style guide candidates are listed alphabetically by last name.
Winners are denoted with (w).

Virginia Senate, 33rd
Mark Herring (D):56.9% (w)
Patricia Phillips (R):43.0%
Other:0.1%
Virginia House, 86th
Jay Donahue (D):47.1%
Tom Rust (R):52.8% (w)
Other:0.2%
Fairfax Board (Chairman)
Gary Baise (R):35.7%
Gerry Connolly (D):59.5% (w)
Gail Parker (IG):4.7%
Other:0.1%
Fairfax Board (Hunter Mill)
Geraldine Butkus (IG):3.9%
Cathy Hudgins (D):57.2% (w)
Marie Huhtala (I):22.4%
Spike Williams (I):16.4%
Other:0.2%
Fairfax Sheriff
Stan Barry (D):98.9% (w)
Other:1.1%
Fairfax Com. Attorney
Patrick McDade (R):44.1%
Ray Morrogh (D):55.7% (w)
Other:0.2%
Fairfax Court Clerk
Dale Evans (D):48.0%
John Frey (R):48.9% (w)
Joseph Oddo (IG):3.0%
Other:0.2%
Fairfax Sch. Board (At-Large)
Chris Braunlich:13.5%
Ralph Cooper Jr.:5.1%
Paul Costantino:13.6%
Tina Hone:19.1% (w)
Steve Hunt:14.0%
Ilryong Moon:18.3% (w)
Jim Raney:14.3% (w)
Christopher Volkstorf:2.1%
Other:0.1%
Fairfax Sch. Board (Hunter Mill)
Christine Arakelian:38.5%
Stu Gibson:61.3% (w)
Other:0.2%
N.VA S&W Conservation
J. Good Gagnon:28.5% (w)
Sally Ormsby:31.9% (w)
John Peterson:27.2% (w)
Daphne Sahlin:11.9%
Other:0.4%
Fairfax School Bonds
Yes:77.1% (w)
No:22.9%
Fairfax Trans. Bonds
Yes:81.7% (w)
No:18.3%

Election Updates

  • Off on a Tangent projects that Mark Herring (D) has been re-elected representing the 33rd District in the Virginia Senate.
  • Off on a Tangent projects that Tom Rust (R) has been re-elected representing the 86th District in the Virginia House of Delegates.
  • Off on a Tangent projects that Gerry Connolly (D) has been re-elected as Chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors. Connolly delivered an acceptance speech at about 10:20 p.m..
  • Off on a Tangent projects that Cathy Hudgins (D) has won re-election for the Hunter Mill District seat on the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors.
  • Off on a Tangent projects that Tina Hone (D-endorsed), incumbent Ilryong Moon (D-endorsed), and Jim Raney (D-endorsed) have been elected to the Fairfax County School Board at-large. Incumbent Steve Hunt (R-endorsed) has not been re-elected.
  • Off on a Tangent projects that Stu Gibson (D-endorsed) has won re-election for the Hunter Mill District seat on the Fairfax County School Board.
  • Off on a Tangent projects that Ray Morrogh (D) has been elected as Fairfax County Commonwealth’s Attorney.
  • Off on a Tangent projects that Stan Barry (D) has been re-elected as Fairfax County Sheriff in an unopposed race.
  • Off on a Tangent projects that John Frey (R) has been narrowly re-elected as Clerk of the Fairfax County Circuit Court.
  • Off on a Tangent projects Johna Good Gagnon, Sally Ormsby, and John Peterson have been elected to the Northern Virginia Soil and Water Conservation District Board of Directors.
  • With over 50 percent of Fairfax County precincts reporting, Off on a Tangent projects that both Fairfax County bond referendums (schools and transportation) have PASSED by large margins.
  • Incumbent Republican Senator Jeannemarie Devolites Davis (34th) has conceded defeat to Chap Petersen (D) in a hotly-contested Fairfax County race.
  • The Washington Post reports that the Democratic Party has gained a majority in the Virginia Senate, while the Republican Party maintains a narrow majority in the Virginia House of Delegates. With only a few races still un-called across the Commonwealth, the Post projects Democratic gains of at least 4 Senate and 3 House seats.

November 2006 General Election

Per the Tangent style guide candidates are listed alphabetically by last name.
Winners are denoted with (w).

U.S. Senate, VA
George Allen (R):49.2%
Gail Parker (IG):1.1%
Jim Webb (D):49.6% (w)
Other:0.1%
U.S. House, VA-11th
Tom Davis (R):55.5% (w)
Ferdinando Greco (IG):0.9%
Andrew Hurst (D):43.6%
Other:0.1%
Virginia Marriage Amend.
Yes:57.1% (w)
No:42.9%
Virginia Incorp. Amend.
Yes:65.2% (w)
No:34.8%
Virginia Tax Amendment
Yes:64.8% (w)
No:35.2%
Fairfax Parks Bonds
Yes:77.5% (w)
No:22.5%
Fairfax Safety Bonds
Yes:78.8% (w)
No:21.2%

Election Updates

  • Off on a Tangent projects that Jim Webb (D) has won election as Senator from Virginia, defeating incumbent Senator George Allen (R) by a razor-thin margin (< 1 percent).
  • As the last outstanding Senate election in the country, Webb’s victory gains the Democratic Party a majority in the U.S. Senate. The Democrats have gained 6 additional seats for a narrow 51-seat majority.
  • Based of an examination of media projections and official returns, Off on a Tangent projects that the Democratic Party has gained a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. The Democrats have gained at least 28 seats in last night’s election for at least a 9 seat majority.
  • With over 98 percent of district precincts reporting, Off on a Tangent projects that Representative Tom Davis (R) has won reelection for Virginia’s 11th District, U.S. House of Representatives, defeating Andrew Hurst (D).
  • With over 99 percent of precincts reporting, Off on a Tangent projects that the Virginia Statewide Ballot Issue #1: Definition of Marriage has PASSED.
  • Off on a Tangent also projects that Ballot Issue #2: Incorporation of Churches and Ballot Issue #3: Property Tax Exemption have both PASSED.
  • With all Fairfax County precincts reporting, Off on a Tangent projects that the Parks and Park Facilities Bonds and Public Safety Facilities Bonds referendums have both PASSED.
  • Associated Press reports that Ben Cardin (D) has won election as Senator from Maryland, defeating Michael Steele (R) and Martin O’Malley (D) has won election as Governor of Maryland, defeating incumbent Governor Bob Ehrlich (R).
  • Associated Press reports that incumbent Senator Joe Lieberman (I) has won reelection as Senator from Connecticut, defeating Ned Lamont (D) and Alan Schlesinger (R).
  • Associated Press reports that Bob Casey (D) has won election as Senator from Pennsylvania, defeating incumbent Senator Rick Santorum (R).
  • Associated Press reports that incumbent Senator Bob Menendez (D) has won election as Senator from New Jersey, defeating Thomas Kean Jr. (R).

November 2005 General Election

Per the Tangent style guide candidates are listed alphabetically by last name.
Winners are denoted with (w).

Virginia Governor
Tim Kaine (D):51.7% (w)
Jerry Kilgore (R):46.0%
Russ Potts (I):2.2%
Other:0.1%
Virginia Lt. Governor
Bill Bolling (R):50.5% (w)
Leslie Byrne (D):49.3%
Other:0.2%
Virginia Atty. General
Creigh Deeds (D):49.9%
Bob McDonnell (R):50.0% (w)
Other:0.1%
Virginia House, 35th
Jim Hyland (R):39.5%
Steve Shannon (D):60.4% (w)
Other:0.0%
Fairfax School Bonds
Yes:76.1% (w)
No:23.9%

Election Updates

  • Tim Kaine (D) has been elected to become the next Governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia. Jerry Kilgore (R) conceded the election in a speech delivered at 10:30 p.m. from his campaign headquarters in Richmond.
  • Bill Bolling (R) has been elected to become the next Lieutenant Governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia. Leslie Byrne (D) has conceded the election.
  • With all precincts reporting, Off on a Tangent can project that Bob McDonnell (R) has won election for Attorney General of the Commonwealth of Virginia. McDonnell has declared victory, however Creigh Deeds (D) has not yet conceded and is pursuing a state-funded recount. McDonnell’s margin of victory is less than half of 1 percent.
  • Steve Shannon (D) has won reelection for the 35th District House of Delegates seat.
  • The Fairfax County Bond Issue (Schools) has passed.

November 2004 General Election

Per the Tangent style guide candidates are listed alphabetically by last name.
Winners are denoted with (w).

President of the United States

George W. Bush (R)
Electors: 286 (w)

Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arizona (10)
Arkansas (6)
Colorado (9)
Florida (27)
Georgia (15)
Idaho (4)
Indiana (11)
Iowa (7)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (9)
Mississippi (6)
Missouri (11)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (5)
Nevada (5)
New Mexico (5)
North Carolina (15)
North Dakota (3)
Ohio (20)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (8)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Texas (34)
Utah (5)
Virginia (13)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)

John Kerry (D)
Electors: 252

California (55)
Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
D.C. (3)
Hawaii (4)
Illinois (21)
Maine (4)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (12)
Michigan (17)
Minnesota (10)
New Hampshire (4)
New Jersey (15)
New York (31)
Oregon (7)
Pennsylvania (21)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)
Washington (11)
Wisconsin (10)

U.S. President (Virginia)
Michael Badnarik (L):0.3%
George W. Bush (R):53.7% (w)
John Kerry (D):45.5%
Michael Peroutka (C):0.3%
Other:0.2%
U.S. House, VA-11th
Tom Davis (R):60.2% (w)
Kenneth Longmyer (D):38.3%
Joseph Oddo (I):1.4%
Other:0.1%
Virginia Redist. Amend.
Yes:85.8% (w)
No:14.2%
Virginia Succession Amend.
Yes:87.2% (w)
No:12.8%
Fairfax Human Svc. Bonds
Yes:70.0% (w)
No:30.0%
Fairfax Library Bonds
Yes:70.8% (w)
No:29.2%
Fairfax Parks Bonds
Yes:73.4% (w)
No:26.6%
Fairfax Transp. Bonds
Yes:78.5% (w)
No:21.5%

Election Updates

  • Off on a Tangent can now project that President George W. Bush (R) has won reelection with at least 274 electoral votes. This projection is based on a careful examination of mainstream media projections and official returns.
  • Senator John Kerry (D-MA) has not yet conceded the contentious battleground state of Ohio, but Bush leads there by at least two percent (over 100,000 votes) with all precincts reporting. While there are still many provisional and absentee ballots outstanding, they will not be enough to swing the election in Kerry’s favor.
  • In addition, Off on a Tangent can project that the Republican party will gain seats in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Exact numbers will come when they are available. Of note, Senate minority leader Tom Daschle (D-SD) has lost his reelection bid to Republican John Thune.