November 2022 General Election
|U.S. House, VA-10th|
|Hung Cao (R):||46.65%|
|Jennifer Wexton (D):||53.15%|
|Loudoun School Bonds|
|Loudoun Pub. Facility Bonds|
|Loudoun Transp. Bonds|
- November 8, 2022, 6:30 p.m.: Off on a Tangent live election coverage begins!
- Polls in Virginia are scheduled to close at 7:00 p.m. Anybody in line at or before that time is permitted to vote.
- I?m providing live returns in each election I am following. I call winners using a proprietary method that incorporates official results, exit polling data, media calls, and other sources.
- Live coverage will continue at least until all of the races I?m following are called, or 1:00 a.m. ET, whichever comes first. Occasional updates will continue until the results are certified.
- I will also be commenting on other notable races in Virginia and nationwide, and on the expected balance of power in the Senate and the House of Representatives.
- 7:00 p.m.: Virginia’s polls are now beginning to close. The earliest results usually appear in the state’s reporting system within about fifteen minutes.
- 7:10 p.m.: Congratulations to the Three West precinct in Orange County, Virginia, for being to first to submit results into Virginia’s statewide system!
- 7:20 p.m.: In case you missed my post earlier today, this is my official prediction for the balance of power in the Congress: a 230-205 majority for the Republicans in the House of Representatives, and a 51-49 majority for the Republicans in the Senate. I have low confidence in my Senate prediction so I will not be surprised if the Democrats hold on.
- 7:39 p.m.: It’s still very early and there haven’t been any major surprises or upsets so far. No major media calls in any of the tightly contested races.
- 7:44 p.m.: Tangent call: the Loudoun County public facilities bond referendum has passed.
- 7:46 p.m.: Tangent call: the Loudoun County transportation bond referendum has passed.
- 8:00 p.m.: Tangent call: the Loudoun County school bond referendum has passed.
- 8:06 p.m.: Multiple media outlets are projecting that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) has been reelected.
- 8:38 p.m.: In the 10th district race in Virginia, the numbers are running very close. My gut instinct is that incumbent Representative Jennifer Wexton (D-VA 10th) holds on, but Hung Cao (R) is giving her a run for her money.
- 8:45 p.m.: Not only is the 10th running very close, but Virginia’s 2nd and 7th districts have Republican challengers maintaining leads over the Democratic incumbents. They haven’t been called by any major media yet, but there’s a good chance Republicans pick up both seats.
- 9:42 p.m.: Some media outlets have called Virginia’s 10th district for incumbent Representative Jennifer Wexton (D-VA 10th) over the last half hour. They are likely correct, but I am not yet certain and have not yet made a call.
- 10:03 p.m.: It’s looking like the Republicans will probably take Virginia’s 2nd district. There’s still a good chance that they take the 7th too, but it’s much narrower. It is very unlikely that they take the 10th.
- 10:45 p.m.: No major shifts in the 10th or 2nd districts; the 10th is still likely to stay Democratic (but I’m still not certain enough to call it) and the 2nd is still likely to be a Republican pick-up. There has been a very large shift in the last half-hour or so in the 7th; the Democratic incumbent suddenly gained about four percentage points and several media outlets immediately called the race for the Democrats. The pattern was a little . . . weird. I’m looking into it.
- 11:03 p.m.: What happened in the 7th district:
- Many precincts in “blue” parts of Prince William County, along with some in Fredericksburg City, dumped their votes into the system around the same time during the 10 o’clock hour.
- The pattern looked weird since the Republican challenger maintained a lead through the entire evening up ’til that point, but the early results were disproportionately from “red” parts of the district. I hadn’t noticed this because I’m not following it nearly as closely as my own district.
- At this point, I have no reason to be suspicious of the result.
- 11:06 p.m.: Tangent call: Incumbent Representative Jennifer Wexton (D-VA 10th) has been reelected.
- 11:15 p.m.: Several major media outlets have called Virginia’s 2nd for challenger Jen Kiggans (R) and the 7th for incumbent Representative Abigail Spanberger (D-VA 7th). If these calls hold, the Democrats lose a seat but retain a 6-5 majority in the Virginia delegation to the House of Representatives.
- 11:49 p.m.: All of my local races have been called and it seems very unlikely that we’ll have final answers on the Congressional balance of power tonight. I am ending my live coverage now. But check back regularly; I will continue to post updates as time permits until the results are certified.
- November 9, 2022, 10:42 a.m.: It’s time for one of my favorite post-election activities: the laggard precinct report! Most jurisdictions in Virginia have submitted results from all precincts (except for their post-election absentee precincts, which are for counting votes postmarked before the deadline but not received until after the election). There are exceptions . . .
- One late precinct from Charles City County (precinct 1-1)
- One late precinct from Henry County (early-voting precinct)
- One late precinct from Nottoway County (early-voting precinct)
- Three late precincts from Richmond City (precincts 203, 307, and 909)
- 10:45 a.m.: Special callout for Richmond City, which manages to appear on this laggard precinct report almost every year.
- 1:22 p.m.: We’re down to only three jurisdictions with one precinct each on the laggard precinct report:
- One late precinct from Henry County (early-voting precinct)
- One late precinct from Nottoway County (early-voting precinct)
- One late precinct from Richmond City (precinct 203)
- 2:20 p.m.: In Virginia, absentee ballots postmarked by election day are counted if they are received by local officials before noon on the Monday following the election.
- The post-election precincts will start to report after 12:00 p.m. on Monday, November 14.
- The Virginia State Board of Elections is expected to certify the official results on the afternoon of Monday, November 14.
- 2:39 p.m.: Regarding my pre-election predictions:
- I expected incumbent Representative Jennifer Wexton (D-VA 10th) to win reelection, and she did. I also said that her margin would probably be narrower than in previous elections. My guess was 52-48. Although late absentee ballots aren’t yet counted, it currently stands at 53-47
- I expected all three Loudoun County bond referendums to pass, and they did. I estimated 65% for the school bonds; they outperformed and got about 71%. The public facilities and transportation bonds I guessed would pass with “75% or more,” and they got about 78% and 76% respectively.
- For the national balance of power, I predicted the Republicans taking a House majority with around 230-205, and a narrow Republican majority in the Senate of 51-49. Neither can be determined so far, but Republicans have underperformed.
- I think the Republicans will still take the House, but it’ll be much closer—maybe 220-215. It is doubtful that the Republicans will take the Senate; I’m now expecting a 50-50 tie (which is effectively a Democratic majority, and which I identified as a possibility). Democrats may even win an outright 51-49 majority.
- Media outlets are reporting that Georgia’s U.S. Senate race will go to a runoff in December, so the balance of power in that body may remain undetermined until then.
- November 10, 2022, 10:20 a.m.: Congratulations to Richmond City, which is the only jurisdiction in Virginia that has not yet submitted complete election day results! Richmond’s precinct 203 is the only unreported precinct in Virginia (except the post-election absentee precincts, which are expected to stay open ’til Monday).
- 10:58 a.m.: An update about the balance of power in the Congress:
- In the U.S. House of Representatives, most media outlets have the current balance with Republicans in the lead at around 210-200, and about 25 seats too close to call. A majority requires at least 218 seats. I think the Republicans are still on-track for a small majority; my guess from yesterday is still in-line with my expectations: 220-215.
- In the U.S. Senate, well, it looks like we’re on track for a tie or for something very close to one. Most media outlets have it at around 48-48 right now with 4 seats either too close to call or heading for a runoff.
- Alaska: Republicans are almost certain to keep the state, but it cannot be called because there are two Republicans running neck-and-neck. One of them is all but certain to win, so we can count Alaska for the Republicans.
- Arizona: Too close to call, but it looks more and more likely that the Democrats will eke out a narrow win.
- Georgia: Heading to a run-off on December 6 between the top two vote getters, the incumbent Democrat and a Republican challenger.
- Nevada: Too close to call, but it’s looking like it’ll probably go narrowly for the Republicans.
- In other words . . . unless there are big changes in the counts, I’m thinking that the Senate will land at 50-49 for the Republicans with the Georgia seat (and thus, the majority) sitting undetermined until next month. (A 50-50 tie is an effective Democratic majority because Vice President Kamala Harris (D) would serve as tie-breaker.)
- November 11, 2022, 1:27 p.m.: Three days later, and we’re still waiting for Richmond City to get its act together and submit its results for precinct 203!
- November 12, 2022, 9:35 p.m.: Some updates:
- Several media outlets are now projecting that Democrats will maintain control of the Senate with wins in Arizona and Nevada. If these calls hold, the Senate will stand at 50-49 until the Georgia run-off election on December 5.
- Control of the House is still undetermined, but Republicans are still favored to take a narrow majority.
- Richmond City has still not reported results for precinct 203.
- November 14, 2022, 12:34 p.m.: No real changes since my last update. The main thing I’m waiting for at the moment is the finalization of Virginia’s numbers: the submission of post-election absentee ballots and the certification by the State Board of Elections.
- 7:49 p.m.: Ballots postmarked by election day and received by Virginia registrars by noon today are being counted across the state. Many jurisdictions have already submitted their numbers, and I expect the rest to come in tomorrow. The State Board of Elections now expects to certify the results on Wednesday (not sure if they published the wrong date or if I just got it wrong earlier).
- November 15, 2022, 11:36 a.m.: All precincts in my followed races are submitted, so the numbers for Virginia’s 10th District and the Loudoun County bond referendums are close to final. As of right now, according to the Virginia Department of Elections, there are only sixteen unreported precincts across the state:
- Post-election absentee precincts for Accomack County, Albemarle County, Charles City County, Goochland County, Henry County, Lunenburg County, Lynchburg City, Newport News City, Nottoway County, Richmond City, Richmond County, Rockbridge County, Surry County, Sussex County, and Waynesboro City.
- And one regular precinct . . . Richmond City’s precinct 203.
- November 16, 2022, 12:38 p.m.: The Virginia Department of Elections website lists eight remaining unreported precincts:
- Post-election absentee precincts for Accomack County, Henry County, Lunenburg County, Lynchburg City, Nottoway County, Richmond City, and Richmond County.
- And still, one regular precinct . . . Richmond City’s precinct 203.
- The State Board of Elections will be meeting at 3:00 p.m. today and is expected to certify the results of the election for the state.
- 6:49 p.m.: Several major media outlets are now reporting that the Republican Party has won a majority in the House of Representatives.
- November 17, 2022, 9:23 a.m.: The Virginia State Board of Elections met yesterday but it is unclear to me if the results of the election were certified. There has been no update to the state election results site (or the list of unreported precincts) since yesterday morning. I’m keeping an eye on it. As soon as the certified results are made available to the public I will finalize them here on the site.
- 5:20 p.m.: The Virginia Department of Elections updated the results this afternoon, and still shows five unreported precincts . . . which leads me to suspect that the board did not certify the election yesterday. These are the listed unreported precincts:
- Post-election absentee precincts for Accomack County, Henry County, Lunenburg County, and Richmond County.
- And the now-infamous regular precinct . . . Richmond City’s precinct 203!
- November 21, 2022, 8:19 p.m.: Another brief update:
- There is now only one precinct listed as unreported on the Virginia Department of Elections website: Richmond City?s precinct 203.
- It is unclear when the State Board of Elections will certify the results. All I know is that they are not certified yet, and the next meeting on the board?s schedule is December 5. I hope they don?t plan to leave this open that long. . . .
- November 30, 2022, 1:58 p.m.: Updates:
- Still no word from the state on when the election will be certified or why Richmond City’s precinct 203 is still unreported. I have contacted the Department of Elections for an explanation and have not received a reply. Hopefully this will be finalized at the December 5 meeting.
- Looks like the House of Representatives has settled at about a 220-215 majority for the Republican Party.
- The Georgia runoff election for the U.S. Senate will be on December 6. The Senate currently stands at 50-49 for the Democrats, which means the Democrats will have an effective majority regardless because Vice President Kamala Harris (D) serves as the tie-breaker.
- December 4, 2022, 2:19 p.m.: The Virginia State Board of Elections is planning to certify the election results in a meeting tomorrow, December 5, beginning at 1:00 p.m. The Department of Elections website still shows Richmond City’s precinct 203 as unreported.
- December 5, 2022, 1:00 p.m.: The Virginia State Board of Elections is meeting to certify the results of the November 8, 2022, election.
- 1:19 p.m.: Today’s updates.
- The Virginia State Board of Elections has voted unanimously to certify the state’s results. The certified numbers are expected to be posted on the Virginia Department of Elections website some time in the coming days.
- As soon as the certified results are posted, I will review and finalize the election results for the races I’m following here on Off on a Tangent.
- Nationwide, most major media outlets have the House standing at a 221-213 majority for the Republican Party. One seat remains uncalled, but is likely to be won by the Republican, which would make the final number 222-213.
- The Senate still stands at a 50-49 majority for the Democrats, with the election in Georgia going to runoff election tomorrow, November 6. The outcome of that will determine if the Senate balance of power will be 51-49 for the Democrats, or a 50-50 tie (which would be an effective Democratic majority as Vice President Kamala Harris (D) would serve as tiebreaker).
- 4:13 p.m.: The certified results have been updated on the Virginia Department of Elections website, and the results in our covered races have been checked and updates to match. This concludes Off on a Tangent coverage of the 2022 election. (I will make at least one more brief update once the Congressional balance of power is finalized.)
- December 6, 2022, 11:25 p.m.:The Democratic incumbent has won the Georgia runoff race. The Senate will be a 51-49 majority for the Democrats. The Republican majority in the House is likely to hold at about 222-213.