Tomorrow, November 5, Virginians will head to the polls to elect a new governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general. In addition, each of the one-hundred delegate districts will be voting for their representative in the House of Delegates, and there will be a number of local referendums and offices on ballots across the state. Based on available polls and other information, I think there are a few possible scenarios that could play out tomorrow in the gubernatorial race. This piece will focus on that race, but I will also spend a bit of time at the end on the ‘down-ticket’ races being followed by Off on a Tangent this year.
Before diving into the scenarios, here is the bottom line. Below is a custom polling chart that I made using the tools made available by HuffPost Pollster. I started from the ‘official’ HuffPost model, but narrowed it to polls that consider ‘likely voters’ (as opposed to ‘registered voters’ or ‘all adults’). In addition, I excluded some pollsters that are affiliated with the Democratic and Republican parties, or have an obvious history of unreliability and partisan bias. I cross-referenced on my own with the RealClearPolitics poll aggregation, which paints a similar picture.
In general, I think this chart accurately reflects the state of the race . . . although I am not confident about the up-tick in Terry McAuliffe’s (D) numbers right at the end, which is based entirely on one poll. If I was in charge of the algorithm painting the blue line, I would have it bent slightly lower from where it is at the last point.