Consistency and the ‘Nuclear Option’

Last Thursday, I sat in a hospital waiting room in Richmond, Virginia, while my wife was undergoing abdominal surgery. A bit after noon, my phone buzzed. It was a CNN ‘breaking news’ alert:

The Democratic-controlled Senate today voted to invoke the so-called nuclear option out of frustration over Republicans who have been blocking President Barack Obama’s nominees.

The controversial move is a rules change that could make a partisan environment even more divisive because it takes away the right for the Senate’s minority party to filibuster.

Under the old rules it took 60 votes to break a filibuster. The change now allows most filibusters of Obama nominees to be stopped with 51 votes—a simple Senate majority.

I could do without CNN’s amateurish characterization of the Democratic senators’ motivations, and a bit more context would have been welcome (although I do understand that news alerts must be brief) . . . but still, I got the point. The Democratic majority in the United States Senate managed to do exactly what a Republican majority considered doing in 2005, before being stymied by Senator John McCain (R-AZ) and the bipartisan ‘Gang of Fourteen.’

The ‘filibuster’ is an unusual nuance of the Senate rules that allows senators the privilege to speak as long as they want on any topic they want, and they can only be stopped by a vote of ‘cloture’—which requires a three-fifths (sixty-vote) super-majority. In practice, an individual senator can hold-up or stop a vote on a bill by simply talking, and talking, and talking . . . unless enough fellow senators can be convinced to vote to make him stop.

Virginia Senator Deeds Stabbed

Virginia Senator Creigh Deeds (D-VA 25th), the Democratic Party’s 2009 candidate for Governor of Virginia, was stabbed multiple times in the face and torso at his home in Bath County this morning. Deeds managed to walk to a nearby road where he was picked up by his cousin, who was coincidentally passing by at the time. He was airlifted to the University of Virginia Hospital and was listed for a time in critical condition, but he has since been upgraded to fair condition and is now expected to recover. According to a Virginia State Police spokesperson, Deeds was conscious and able to make statements to law enforcement officials.

Deeds’s son, Austin ‘Gus’ Deeds, was found at the home suffering from a gunshot wound and died at the scene. Police officials believe that Gus Deeds stabbed his father and then killed himself, and the assault is now being investigated as an attempted murder-suicide. The Richmond Times-Dispatch reports that Gus had been held yesterday on an emergency custody order, and was evaluated for mental health problems, but was released to family custody due to a lack of available psychiatric beds in the western Virginia region.

Governor Bob McDonnell (R-VA), who was elected in 2009 after facing Deeds in the gubernatorial race, described Deeds as an “exceptional and committed public servant” and has asked all Virginians to join in praying for him to make a complete recovery. Many other notable political figures, including Senator Mark Warner (D-VA) and Governor-elect Terry McAuliffe (D-VA), have made similar statements.

Election 2013 Results (Final)

Ballot Races
Virginia Governor
Ken Cuccinelli (R):45.22%
Terry McAuliffe (D):47.74%
Robert Sarvis (L):6.52%
Other:0.53%
Virginia Lt. Governor
E. W. Jackson (R):44.52%
Ralph Northam (D):55.10%
Other:0.37%
Virginia Atty. General
Mark Herring (D):49.88%
Mark Obenshain (R):49.87%
Other:0.25%
Virginia House, 87th
John Bell (D):49.34%
David Ramadan (R):50.26%
Other:0.40%
Ballot Issues
Loudoun Park Bonds
Yes:54.20%
No:45.80%
Loudoun Transp Bonds
Yes:68.07%
No:31.98%
Loudoun Fire Bonds
Yes:76.85%
No:23.15%
Loudoun School Bonds
Yes:67.56%
No:32.44%

I Voted; Make Sure You Do Too!

I Voted, 2013
I Voted, 2013

This morning, I went to my local polling place and cast my ballot (for the various candidates and offices that I have endorsed). There were no delays and things were running smoothly. There are reports this morning that some Loudoun County precincts are experiencing check-in delays due to a computer problem, but mine seems to have been unaffected.

I spoke briefly to one of the poll workers, who said that there was a steady stream of voters coming through, but it was pretty light (especially compared to presidential years). This is anecdotal information, of course, but it seems consistent with the turnout levels we usually expect to see in off-year elections in Virginia. For some reason, the average American tends to be more interested in the relatively remote presidential elections rather than the local and state elections that have more real-world impact on their lives.

But I digress. Every November, as I cast my ballot for my selected candidates and issues, I am reminded of how lucky we are to live under a free, republican government (small-r). In Virginia, as in the rest of the United States, we get to decide who is going to lead us. We get to shape our commonwealth in our own image. If we act prudently in making our choices, we will be better off. If we act imprudently, we will be harmed. It is up to us to research, consider, contemplate, analyze, and vote. It is up to us to pay attention, and hold our leaders accountable. It is up to us to choose leaders who respect our rights and defend our liberties.

If you live in a state that is holding a vote today, and if you are legally eligible to vote, then it is your right and your responsibility to read about the candidates, research the issues, come to a well-informed, conscientious decision, and go to the polls to make your voice heard. I have my opinions—strong ones, at that—about who the best choices are this year. I hope you’ll read my endorsements and give them honest consideration. But whether you agree with me or not, I hope you’ll take your civic responsibility seriously and go to the polls today.

And tune back in to Off on a Tangent later tonight where I will be providing live coverage as the results come in!

Virginia Election Scenarios

Tomorrow, November 5, Virginians will head to the polls to elect a new governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general. In addition, each of the one-hundred delegate districts will be voting for their representative in the House of Delegates, and there will be a number of local referendums and offices on ballots across the state. Based on available polls and other information, I think there are a few possible scenarios that could play out tomorrow in the gubernatorial race. This piece will focus on that race, but I will also spend a bit of time at the end on the ‘down-ticket’ races being followed by Off on a Tangent this year.

Before diving into the scenarios, here is the bottom line. Below is a custom polling chart that I made using the tools made available by HuffPost Pollster. I started from the ‘official’ HuffPost model, but narrowed it to polls that consider ‘likely voters’ (as opposed to ‘registered voters’ or ‘all adults’). In addition, I excluded some pollsters that are affiliated with the Democratic and Republican parties, or have an obvious history of unreliability and partisan bias. I cross-referenced on my own with the RealClearPolitics poll aggregation, which paints a similar picture.

In general, I think this chart accurately reflects the state of the race . . . although I am not confident about the up-tick in Terry McAuliffe’s (D) numbers right at the end, which is based entirely on one poll. If I was in charge of the algorithm painting the blue line, I would have it bent slightly lower from where it is at the last point.

Customized Poll Chart (via HuffPost Pollster)
Customized Poll Chart (via HuffPost Pollster)

Scott Bradford is a writer and technologist who has been putting his opinions online since 1995. He believes in three inviolable human rights: life, liberty, and property. He is a Catholic Christian who worships the trinitarian God described in the Nicene Creed. Scott is a husband, nerd, pet lover, and AMC/Jeep enthusiast with a B.S. degree in public administration from George Mason University.