Scott Bradford: Off on a Tangent

Enjoying That Cheap Gas?

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I hope you’re enjoying the cheap gas (I am!), because it is probably coming to an end. Chakib Khelil, the president of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has told the world that the members of his organization have consensus on a significant output cut at their meeting next week. OPEC, of course, is the international cartel that controls the majority of the world’s oil production. Many of its member nations are avowed enemies of the United States, Israel, and civilization in general.

With a decrease in production will come an increase in prices—simple economics—which certainly won’t help our economy or anybody else’s economy. OPEC, however, isn’t the type of organization to care. If they operated within the United States, they’d be shut down for illegal collusion under the Sherman Antitrust Act . . . but as an international cartel, they are not directly subject to our laws. Oil is one of those things that people have to use, and so long as it doesn’t spike too high people will continue to use it just as much as they always have. I have to drive to work the same distance every day whether gas is $1.02/gal or $5.02/gal.

And what are my alternatives? There is not a single practical alternative fuel vehicle available for my purchase. Perhaps, instead of giving 15 billion dollars to the ‘big three’ U.S. auto manufacturers, we should give the same amount of money to Tesla Motors—an electric car manufacturer based in California—so they can complete development and production of lower-priced, more affordable models beyond their slick $100,000 electric roadster.

It seems to me that companies like Tesla are more likely to save American auto manufacturing than G.M., Ford, or Chrysler are . . . and help get us off foreign oil and help us get away from indirectly funding terrorism. If we’re going to spend billions of tax dollars on private businesses, that might be a more prudent way to do it.

Economic Hysteria Won’t Help

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A quick perusal of my postings tagged ‘Economics‘ over the last year or so is a worthy study in reality for anybody who is concerned about our economy. Concern is, unfortunately, well-founded now—a fact reinforced by today’s news that our economy lost over half a million jobs in November and unemployment has spiked very quickly up to 6.7 percent. The National Bureau of Economic Research declared on Monday that the U.S. economy has been in a recession since December of last year.

But today, individuals and businesses are reacting to all this bad news with short-sighted maneuvers that are counterproductive and will accelerate, deepen, and lengthen this recession. By taking actions based on hysterics instead of reality, we are making things worse. Anybody who has studied economics with any seriousness can tell you the number one impact on the economy is the peoples’ general perception of the economy. Some might say it’s consumer spending, employment levels, government action, and so on but in the grand scheme of things all these have their roots in perception.

Consumers who perceive the economy is doing poorly will tighten their belts and spend less (out of fear that they might lose their jobs), then reduced consumer spending leads to less profit for business, then businesses lay people off and the economy really does tank. Or businesses perceive the economy is doing poorly and preemptively lay people off (out of fear that their profits will drop), which increases unemployment, which reduces consumer spending and the economy really does tank. Or the government perceives the economy is doing poorly and preemptively intervenes with much fanfare and blather, which convinces consumers and businesses that things must be really bad, which leads to both reduced consumer spending and preemptive layoffs and the economy really does tank. Or consumers, businesses, and the government all do all of these things all at once and send us into a self-induced negative spiral . . . which is what we’re seeing today.

Read more . . .

Making Some Progress

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Office ChaosI mentioned before that my big project for the week is trying to get my office into some sort of order. Let me tell you, the task of removing large furniture (one huge desk, one medium size desk, and one old-school four-level file cabinet) and replacing it with new furniture (two large and one medium desks that all fit together, two drawer/file cabinet units, and a smaller file cabinet unit) is extremely complex and difficult. You have to take everything—and I mean everything—out of the old furniture and pile it up in corners and nooks while you fit all the new furniture in. Then, once that’s done, you have to get everything put back away.

Well, so far, all the furniture is where it needs to be, I finally got the computers all back in-place yesterday, and the files from the file cabinet are properly in their new file cabinets. But there are mindless, disorganized messes of . . . stuff . . . all over the place, as you can see in the photo (and there’s plenty more just out of view on the left, right, and below the camera). But progress is being made. Slowly.

In case you are wondering, the desk and drawer units are all from the Ikea ‘Galant’ family. I bought the two corner disks and the extension (on the left) and the smaller drawer unit (barely visible behind the GMU degree on the left) from my friend Christine, then added the two drawer units in the middle and some shelves (off to the sides; not visible) from Ikea. The Eelserver, which is our apartment file and network server, along with our DSL modem and wireless router are all under the desk at the back-right corner, with the printer on the right just out of view on top of the desk. My main workstation is at the back left corner (where the monitors are).

Someday it will be wonderful :-).

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Posted in: Life

Noonan: Turbulence Ahead

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The always interesting Peggy Noonan wrote an excellent piece of Thanksgiving Day literature which appeared in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal. She illustrates, in her ever-poignant way, how many things we should be thankful for—from the in-progress, peaceful, smooth transition of presidential power to the relative economic stability (yes, you read that right) we are surrounded by today.

As Noonan points out, with all the media and punditry and politicians going on about how we are in the midst of an economic calamity, the reality is quite different from where I’m sitting and if you look around honestly you’ll likely come to the same conclusion. People are still shopping, buying, traveling, and more.

Despite that, Noonan believes there is turbulance ahead. But we have weather turbulance before, and will do so again. It’s not the end of the world.

Happy (slightly belated) Thanksgiving.

Thanksgiving Terrorism Fears

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Ongoing economic woes have taken a back-seat in the news this Thanksgiving as Al-Qaeda, the worldwide terrorist network responsible for the 9/11/2001 attacks and countless other acts of mass murder, rears its ugly head.

Yesterday, gunmen armed with automatic weapons and grenades laid seige to the Indian city of Mumbai, targeting locations likely to house British and U.S. tourists. At least 101 have been killed and 287 injured in the attacks, and while the purpetrators have not yet been identified the attack—coordinated across the city of Mumbai—bears the hallmarks of Al-Qaeda terrorism.

Meanwhile, reports are emerging that worldwide terrorist ‘chatter’ has led intelligence chiefs to believe that major attacks—perhaps including the Mumbai attacks, and perhaps something else entirely—is in the works for the period of time before President-elect Barack Obama (D) takes office in January. A specific report has now emerged stating that New York City’s Penn Station, a major train station, was the target of an Al-Qaeda plot. The station, now under heavy security, is a major hub in the U.S. northeast transportation network and, if attacked, could result in major nationwide transportation disruption during one of the heaviest travel seasons.

I wish everybody a safe Thanksgiving; be alert and report any suspicious activity.

Scott Bradford is a writer and technologist who has been putting his opinions online since 1995. He believes in three inviolable human rights: life, liberty, and property. He is a Catholic Christian who worships the trinitarian God described in the Nicene Creed. Scott is a husband, nerd, pet lover, and AMC/Jeep enthusiast with a B.S. degree in public administration from George Mason University.